SPC/NSSL Experimental Forecast for 20020622 Valid 1800-0000 UTC

Day 2: 18-00Z
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Forecast Issue Date: 20020621
Forecast Period: 1700-0100 UTC
Forecast Team: Hart/LaDue/Lynn
Visiting Scientist(s): BRAD FERRIER

..Synopsis..

THERE IS A 10% PROBABILITY OF CI FROM EASTERN COLORADO SOUTH TO MOST OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.  A SMALLER AREA OF 40%
PROBABILITY CI IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN
NEW MEXICO INCLUDING THE RATON MESA.

..Discussion..

A CLOSED 50H LOW OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT
OUT INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  THIS LOW
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.  WINDS AT 70H WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP BRING DOWNSLOPING FLOW
EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH
A SURFACE DRYLINE OUT INTO THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS.  THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE TO INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION,
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EXPANDING AREA OF 16 DEG
C 700MB TEMPERATURES AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTS TO THE EAST.
THE INFLUENCES OF THE LIFTING WAVE WILL NOT BE FELT AS MUCH IN NEW
MEXICO AND WE SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION, THE CAPPING WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN, AND
WITH CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE TO 700 MB INTO THE MOUNTAINS, CI PROSPECTS
WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHER THAN IN COLORADO.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CI IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTH OF THE EASTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND IN AN AREA OF THE MORE TROPICAL LIKE
AIRMASS EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN TEXAS. 
 
 THE ONLY POTENTIALLY
FORECASTABLE BOUNDARY IN THE IHOP DOMAIN WILL BE THE DRYLINE SEGMENT
IN EASTERN COLORADO.  HOWEVER, IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE IHOP DOMAIN.  FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY FORM BUT NOT ON ANY ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY.
 
Convective Confidence for 17-19Z: 10
Convective Confidence for 19-21Z: 20
Convective Confidence for 21-23Z: 30
Convective Confidence for 23-01Z: 30

Expected Boundary Type: DRYLNE