(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010845
SPC AC 010845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2016
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TX AND WESTERN
OK INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS TUESDAY /DAY 4/ DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE BASE OF A
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH --SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES-- WILL FAVOR A RETURN-FLOW PATTERN FOR INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED WITH THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE LIFECYCLE...AND WILL
POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
SEEMINGLY EXIST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOW PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE AVAILABLE AND JUXTAPOSED WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD.
MODELS BEGIN TO VARY CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 5 AND OVERALL LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST.
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