ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030918
   SPC AC 030918
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0418 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2008
   
   VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEAMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN AND
   A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN TIER OF
   THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN ALONG
   THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
   
   DAY 4 - INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY AND GLANCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG WITH ITS
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
   NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MODELS APPEAR A BIT
   TOO HIGH. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT FLOW AND INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP
   FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
   SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL PLAINS WHERE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAY
   SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
   
   DAY 5 - OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FRONT CONTINUES INTO
   GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IN DAY 4...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   REMAIN MODEST...BUT THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   DAY 6 - A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NERN STATES
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO THIS
   REGION WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES.
   
   DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MESOSCALE DETAILS AND TIMING/
   STRENGTH OF SOME IMPULSES...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A RISK AREA AT THIS
   TIME...BUT ONE OR MORE OF THESE AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE NERN STATES
   MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/03/2008

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