(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030939
SPC AC 030939
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
TUESDAY (DAY 4) IT STILL APPEARS LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS MIGHT PERSIST FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...TENDENCY
WILL BE FOR THIS WAVE TO DEAMPLIFY...AND ONGOING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT SUGGEST
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
WEDNESDAY (DAY 5) PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH
THE TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT WITHIN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
THURSDAY (DAY 6) AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE NEAR
THE GULF COAST AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES CONTRIBUTING TO
INLAND PROGRESSION OF A SMALL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
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