(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070936
SPC AC 070936
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2014
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ILL TIMED/PHASED
TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THE
UPCOMING MID WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EJECTION OF NRN MEXICO TROUGH INTO SOUTH TX MONDAY BUT
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND DAY6. INSTABILITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD.
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