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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 1, 2016
Updated: Fri Jul 1 08:42:02 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Jul 04, 2016 - Tue, Jul 05, 2016 D7Thu, Jul 07, 2016 - Fri, Jul 08, 2016
D5Tue, Jul 05, 2016 - Wed, Jul 06, 2016 D8Fri, Jul 08, 2016 - Sat, Jul 09, 2016
D6Wed, Jul 06, 2016 - Thu, Jul 07, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010840
   SPC AC 010840

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   WHILE GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUT SHOWS LARGE-SCALE/GENERAL SIMILARITY
   THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6-7...DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT EVEN EARLY ON WITH
   THE DETAILS IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF MORE SUBTLE FEATURES
   /THOSE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAILY CONVECTIVE EPISODES/.  THE
   LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS ALOFT BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL...WITH
   A RELATIVELY FLAT/ZONAL H5 PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD SUGGESTIVE OF
   MEMBER-TO-MEMBER OFFSETS IN LOCATION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGES AND
   TROUGHS. 

   IN GENERAL...HINTS THAT SOME SEVERE RISK WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY DAY 4 EXIST WITHIN BOTH THE ECMWF AND
   GFS...AND POSSIBLY WWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.  DETAILS THOUGH
   REMAIN QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF
   PREDICTABILITY OF SMALLER-SCALE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW FIELD.

   FOCUS FOR SEVERE RISK SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT NWWD TOWARD THE NRN
   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AREA/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE DAYS 5-6
   TIME FRAME...WITH A SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO SHIFT W-E ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  AGAIN HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION OF FEATURES
   PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING OF SPECIFIC RISK AREAS.  

   WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DEVIATIONS INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF
   THE PERIOD -- EVEN WITH LARGER-SCALE FEATURES...AN OVERALL LACK OF
   CERTAINTY/CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATING AREAS OF GREATER
   SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD SUGGESTS MAINTENANCE OF
   LOW-PREDICTABILITY WORDING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

   ..GOSS.. 07/01/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 01, 2016
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