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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 30, 2014
Updated: Thu Oct 30 08:50:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Nov 02, 2014 - Mon, Nov 03, 2014 D7Wed, Nov 05, 2014 - Thu, Nov 06, 2014
D5Mon, Nov 03, 2014 - Tue, Nov 04, 2014 D8Thu, Nov 06, 2014 - Fri, Nov 07, 2014
D6Tue, Nov 04, 2014 - Wed, Nov 05, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 300849
   SPC AC 300849

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER
   THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS AT 12Z/SUN WILL TRACK ALONG THE N-CNTRL
   CONUS/S-CNTRL CANADA BORDER AREA INTO D6. WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE WILL
   BE LIMITED INITIALLY WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE GIVEN SUCH A SHORT PERIOD
   FOLLOWING LOW-LEVEL NLYS IN THE NRN GULF THROUGH D3. PERSISTENT
   AIR-MASS MODIFICATION WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A PLUME OF 60S SURFACE
   DEW POINTS FROM THE WRN GULF...REACHING AROUND LATE D5 A COLD FRONT
   TRAILING FROM THE LEAD IMPULSE INTO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. 

   BELOW-AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY CONTINUES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
   A SRN-STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM INITIALLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
   AT 12Z/SUN. EVEN SO...THE PREDOMINANT POSITIVE-TILT ORIENTATION OF
   THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEP-LAYER WINDS LARGELY PARALLELING THE
   SURFACE FRONT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING EML PLUME AMIDST SWLY
   MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP
   APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR HIGH-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/30/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 30, 2014
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