|
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 22, 2009
Updated: Sun Nov 22 09:44:03 UTC 2009
| D4 | Wed, Nov 25, 2009 - Thu, Nov 26, 2009 |
D7 | Sat, Nov 28, 2009 - Sun, Nov 29, 2009 |
| D5 | Thu, Nov 26, 2009 - Fri, Nov 27, 2009 |
D8 | Sun, Nov 29, 2009 - Mon, Nov 30, 2009 |
| D6 | Fri, Nov 27, 2009 - Sat, Nov 28, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220943
SPC AC 220943
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE UPR FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN WAKE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES LATE IN
THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIRMASS SWD INTO
THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SW BY THE WEEKEND... THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS ON BOTH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. RETURN
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND. BUT...RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY PARTIALLY
MODIFIED. GIVEN THE LIKELY POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE...A HIGHER-END
SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
..RACY.. 11/22/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
|
|
weather.gov 
