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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 23, 2014
Updated: Sun Nov 23 09:57:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - Thu, Nov 27, 2014 D7Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - Sun, Nov 30, 2014
D5Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - Fri, Nov 28, 2014 D8Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - Mon, Dec 01, 2014
D6Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - Sat, Nov 29, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230955
   SPC AC 230955

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A LONGWAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS
   MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AS A
   COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS SOUTH FL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
   BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN FAR SRN FL BEFORE DRIER
   AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
   INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY/DAY 5 KEEPING A
   RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN
   STATES. AT MID-LEVELS...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
   ERN SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN U.S. ON
   FRIDAY/DAY 6 WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLY IN THE
   CNTRL STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR
   MOISTURE RETURN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT
   APPEAR TO DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
   PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL THAT FAR OUT. WILL GO WITH
   PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STRONG
   CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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