Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 19, 2017
Updated: Thu Jan 19 09:00:04 UTC 2017
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sun, Jan 22, 2017 - Mon, Jan 23, 2017 D7Wed, Jan 25, 2017 - Thu, Jan 26, 2017
D5Mon, Jan 23, 2017 - Tue, Jan 24, 2017 D8Thu, Jan 26, 2017 - Fri, Jan 27, 2017
D6Tue, Jan 24, 2017 - Wed, Jan 25, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 190857
   SPC AC 190857

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z


   ...Southeast Atlantic coast Sunday/day 4...
   Substantial cyclogenesis is expected, generally in the immediate lee
   of the southern Appalachians, Sunday into Monday morning as a strong
   mid-upper shortwave trough traverses the Southeast and Gulf basin. 
   There are some differences in the details regarding the cyclogenesis
   and lingering influences of a lead speed max early in the period. 
   However, the scenario still appears favorable for a squall line to
   form along or in advance of the synoptic cold front which will then
   move across parts of FL/GA and the Carolinas.  Given an established
   moist boundary layer across the Gulf basin already, an unstable warm
   sector appears likely in advance of the cold front.  Given
   weak-moderate buoyancy and very strong low-midlevel vertical shear
   in the warm sector, there will be the potential for substantial
   severe weather, especially across parts of GA/FL where instability
   will be less in question. 

   ...Day 5/Monday and beyond...
   In the wake of the strong cyclone/cold front, only limited moisture
   return is expected ahead of another cold front that will approach
   the Gulf coast days 6-7, along the southern fringe of a
   positive-tilt upper trough.

   ..Thompson.. 01/19/2017


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: January 19, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities