(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220839
SPC AC 220839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/FRI WILL CREST THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS RIDGE...BEFORE TURNING SEWD AND AIDING IN THE
BROADENING OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BY MON. WITH A
STOUT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NRN
MID-LEVEL WLYS OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES ON FRI SHOULD BECOME NWLY BY
SUN WITH A RIBBON OF STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING
RIDGE/TROUGH. THIS SHOULD OVERLAP PARTS OF THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS EML PLUME OVER THE CORN BELT TO
MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY. AT LEAST MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
APPARENT IN D4-6...BUT MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TIME FRAME
IS MUCH TOO LOW TO RELIABLY DELINEATE A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER AREA.
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