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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 3, 2016
Updated: Tue May 3 08:30:03 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Fri, May 06, 2016 - Sat, May 07, 2016 D7Mon, May 09, 2016 - Tue, May 10, 2016
D5Sat, May 07, 2016 - Sun, May 08, 2016 D8Tue, May 10, 2016 - Wed, May 11, 2016
D6Sun, May 08, 2016 - Mon, May 09, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030828
   SPC AC 030828

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOW-MOVING UPPER
   LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY
   DAY6...PERHAPS SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS LATER DAYS7-8.  TIMING OF
   EJECTING SHORT WAVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   CONCERN AND MODULATOR REGARDING SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SCANT ACROSS THE
   PLAINS...MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD WITH TIME
   ALLOW AT LEAST MODIFIED MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD SUCH THAT SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ALONG A SHARPENING DRY LINE FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  BY DAY5...ADEQUATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
   RESIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...IF STRONGER
   FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AS EXPECTED.  TIMING OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL DICTATE SEVERE RISKS DOWNSTREAM DURING LATER
   PERIODS.  HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
   ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

   ..DARROW.. 05/03/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 03, 2016
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