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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 6, 2016
Updated: Sat Feb 6 09:51:02 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Feb 09, 2016 - Wed, Feb 10, 2016 D7Fri, Feb 12, 2016 - Sat, Feb 13, 2016
D5Wed, Feb 10, 2016 - Thu, Feb 11, 2016 D8Sat, Feb 13, 2016 - Sun, Feb 14, 2016
D6Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - Fri, Feb 12, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060949
   SPC AC 060949

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

   VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SWD INTO THE
   SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES. THE MODELS MOVE A
   PIECE OF THE TROUGH EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 BUT
   GENERALLY KEEP THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE ERN
   STATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 AND THURSDAY/DAY
   6...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EWD AND DEVELOP
   NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NCNTRL U.S. SEWD TO THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD. THE NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS INTO
   FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8 AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
   SHAPE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ONCE AGAIN. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL FAST
   MOVING COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
   ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP REINFORCE SFC
   HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION LIMITING MOISTURE
   RETURN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FOR THIS REASON...CONDITIONS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE
   CONUS DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/06/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 06, 2016
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