(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130837
SPC AC 130837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY HOSTILE TOWARD
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. DOMINANT
SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE
THIS WEEK ENGULFING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A PARTICULARLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAY DIG SEWD
TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE MAY
ADVANCE NWD INTO AZ/NM ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR TSTMS WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT