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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 25, 2016
Updated: Mon Jul 25 08:43:02 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Thu, Jul 28, 2016 - Fri, Jul 29, 2016 D7Sun, Jul 31, 2016 - Mon, Aug 01, 2016
D5Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - Sat, Jul 30, 2016 D8Mon, Aug 01, 2016 - Tue, Aug 02, 2016
D6Sat, Jul 30, 2016 - Sun, Jul 31, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250841
   SPC AC 250841

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
   OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW MAINTAINED
   ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
   AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE THIS PATTERN
   WILL LIKELY FAVOR PERIODS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT
   PLAINS...PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL REMAIN POOR
   THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS 
   SUGGESTS A DAMPENING OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WILL
   OCCUR IN THE SUN/D7-MON/D8 PERIOD.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 25, 2016
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