(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 041006
SPC AC 041006
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY /DAY 6/ WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF INDICATING LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO RETURN INLAND LATER DAY 7 INTO DAY
8...PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE IS LOW.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT