(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250836
SPC AC 250836
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE CURRENT D3 OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
AN EWD-MOVING/SWD-SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO S-CNTRL
CONUS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BECOME PINCHED OFF ON D4 AS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. FAST FLOW SHOULD EXIST TUE
AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY...WHERE A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY BECOME EVIDENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO LOWER
GREAT LAKES. BEYOND D4...SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE AS
WEAK OR NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME PERVASIVE OVER THE GULF.
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