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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 22, 2014
Updated: Wed Oct 22 08:37:02 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Oct 25, 2014 - Sun, Oct 26, 2014 D7Tue, Oct 28, 2014 - Wed, Oct 29, 2014
D5Sun, Oct 26, 2014 - Mon, Oct 27, 2014 D8Wed, Oct 29, 2014 - Thu, Oct 30, 2014
D6Mon, Oct 27, 2014 - Tue, Oct 28, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220836
   SPC AC 220836

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
   PATTERN BECOMING PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CONUS.  MODELS
   SHOW A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST AND TOWARDS THE CNTRL
   STATES DURING THE WEEKEND.  MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
   ADVANCE NWD IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. 
   MODELS SIGNAL AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
   THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
   WEEK.  DESPITE A LONGER WINDOW OF TIME FOR MOISTURE MODIFICATION TO
   OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SECOND MID-LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WRN GULF BASIN AND COASTAL TX/LA PRIOR TO
   EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AS THE
   SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.

   ..SMITH.. 10/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 22, 2014
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