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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 26, 2015
Updated: Thu Mar 26 08:29:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sun, Mar 29, 2015 - Mon, Mar 30, 2015 D7Wed, Apr 01, 2015 - Thu, Apr 02, 2015
D5Mon, Mar 30, 2015 - Tue, Mar 31, 2015 D8Thu, Apr 02, 2015 - Fri, Apr 03, 2015
D6Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - Wed, Apr 01, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260827
   SPC AC 260827

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ECMWF/GFS AGREE BROAD NWLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM
   RANGE PERIOD.  MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
   INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH REGIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY COULD AT TIMES EXPERIENCE A FEW WARM
   ADVECTION/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE EVENTS.  WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS REGIME...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME
   FRAME.

   ..DARROW.. 03/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: March 26, 2015
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