(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060949
SPC AC 060949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SWD INTO THE
SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES. THE MODELS MOVE A
PIECE OF THE TROUGH EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 BUT
GENERALLY KEEP THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE ERN
STATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 AND THURSDAY/DAY
6...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EWD AND DEVELOP
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NCNTRL U.S. SEWD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. THE NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS INTO
FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8 AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD ONCE AGAIN. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL FAST
MOVING COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP REINFORCE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION LIMITING MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FOR THIS REASON...CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
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