(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050902
SPC AC 050902
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST THU DEC 05 2013
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE
NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO EJECT ENEWD FROM LARGER SCALE
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH DOMINATING THE WRN AND CNTRL CONUS. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A RETREATING
WARM FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO MIDWEST ON D4/SUNDAY. THE
RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH D5/MONDAY AS A REINFORCING MASS OF COLDER AIR SPREADS ESEWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTH THROUGH D6/TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MASS ADJUSTMENTS OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG IMPULSE TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
WEAK TO MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT
WITHIN THE NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...MOST LIKELY DUE TO POOR QUALITY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSIONS.
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