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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 31, 2015
Updated: Sat Jan 31 10:02:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Feb 03, 2015 - Wed, Feb 04, 2015 D7Fri, Feb 06, 2015 - Sat, Feb 07, 2015
D5Wed, Feb 04, 2015 - Thu, Feb 05, 2015 D8Sat, Feb 07, 2015 - Sun, Feb 08, 2015
D6Thu, Feb 05, 2015 - Fri, Feb 06, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 311000
   SPC AC 311000

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN...UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
   DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE 4-8
   PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INLAND
   AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FL AROUND
   THE DAY 5-6 PERIOD WHEN MODELS INDICATE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW OVER
   THE SWRN U.S. WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF...DEAMPLIFYING
   IN THE PROCESS. A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER NRN FL
   SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DAY 6 TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
   DEMONSTRATED SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING AND
   AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE TO JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..DIAL.. 01/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: January 31, 2015
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