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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jul 4, 2009
Updated: Sat Jul 4 08:29:05 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Tue, Jul 07, 2009 - Wed, Jul 08, 2009 |
D7 | Fri, Jul 10, 2009 - Sat, Jul 11, 2009 |
| D5 | Wed, Jul 08, 2009 - Thu, Jul 09, 2009 |
D8 | Sat, Jul 11, 2009 - Sun, Jul 12, 2009 |
| D6 | Thu, Jul 09, 2009 - Fri, Jul 10, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040828
SPC AC 040828
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...REGIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING DAYS 5-6 /JULY 8-9/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT INDICATING THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON DAY 5 /WED JULY
8/ AND CONTINUE ENEWD INTO ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON DAY 6 /THU
JULY 9/. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE MOISTURE NWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK...AS AN
EML/CAPPING INVERSION SPREADS EWD FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE GENERATION OF CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING ON DAY 5 /WED JULY 8/. A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE
UPPER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
EPISODE DURING THE TWO DAY PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN AND PREDICTABILITY OF A HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT BECOMES
MORE LIMITED BEYOND DAY 6.
..WEISS.. 07/04/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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