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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 3, 2015
Updated: Mon Aug 3 08:56:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Thu, Aug 06, 2015 - Fri, Aug 07, 2015 D7Sun, Aug 09, 2015 - Mon, Aug 10, 2015
D5Fri, Aug 07, 2015 - Sat, Aug 08, 2015 D8Mon, Aug 10, 2015 - Tue, Aug 11, 2015
D6Sat, Aug 08, 2015 - Sun, Aug 09, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030855
   SPC AC 030855

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODELS CONSENSUS IS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
   SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH
   PRESSURE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS. FOR DAY 4 /THURSDAY/ A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER
   THE TN VALLEY AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH
   PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF VORTICITY MAXIMA AND WHERE
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
   HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING STORMS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE TN
   VALLEY REGION/ PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT
   THIS TIME. BEYOND DAY 4 THE SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PROMOTE EPISODES OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND MCS DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL/NRN
   PLAINS EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW WITH
   THIS PATTERN DUE IN LARGE PART TO POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE ANTECEDENT
   CONVECTION WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE WHERE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

   ..DIAL.. 08/03/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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