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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 1, 2016
Updated: Sat Oct 1 08:47:03 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Oct 04, 2016 - Wed, Oct 05, 2016 D7Fri, Oct 07, 2016 - Sat, Oct 08, 2016
D5Wed, Oct 05, 2016 - Thu, Oct 06, 2016 D8Sat, Oct 08, 2016 - Sun, Oct 09, 2016
D6Thu, Oct 06, 2016 - Fri, Oct 07, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010845
   SPC AC 010845

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2016

   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TX AND WESTERN
   OK INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS TUESDAY /DAY 4/ DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE BASE OF A
   LARGER-SCALE TROUGH --SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES-- WILL FAVOR A RETURN-FLOW PATTERN FOR INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS.  SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED WITH THIS FORECAST
   SCENARIO...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE LIFECYCLE...AND WILL
   POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  

   BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
   SEEMINGLY EXIST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOW PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO
   RIVER VALLEY.  MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
   BE AVAILABLE AND JUXTAPOSED WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD.  

   MODELS BEGIN TO VARY CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 5 AND OVERALL LOWER
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST.

   ..SMITH.. 10/01/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 01, 2016
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