Grand Island, NE...Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...Altus, OK...Hays, KS...
Tue, Apr 22, 2014 - Wed, Apr 23, 2014
Fri, Apr 25, 2014 - Sat, Apr 26, 2014
Wed, Apr 23, 2014 - Thu, Apr 24, 2014
Sat, Apr 26, 2014 - Sun, Apr 27, 2014
Thu, Apr 24, 2014 - Fri, Apr 25, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190838
SPC AC 190838
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS SINGLE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES. EVEN SO THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUPPORT FOR A WELL ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY MID WEEK
AS SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS.
CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO CNTRL NEB. WHILE
DETAILS OF SHORT WAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SPEED MAXIMUM DIFFER
AMONG THE MODELS...40KT+ SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. IF A BROADER AND MORE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT...POSSIBLY OVER MULTIPLE DAYS...COULD ENSUE.
HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY WILL PRECLUDE DELINEATING A SEVERE
THREAT BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
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