(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260827
SPC AC 260827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
ECMWF/GFS AGREE BROAD NWLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH REGIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY COULD AT TIMES EXPERIENCE A FEW WARM
ADVECTION/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE EVENTS. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS REGIME...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME
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