(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250841
SPC AC 250841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW MAINTAINED
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY FAVOR PERIODS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS...PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL REMAIN POOR
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A DAMPENING OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WILL
OCCUR IN THE SUN/D7-MON/D8 PERIOD.
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