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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 26, 2017
Updated: Wed Jul 26 08:36:03 UTC 2017
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sat, Jul 29, 2017 - Sun, Jul 30, 2017 D7Tue, Aug 01, 2017 - Wed, Aug 02, 2017
D5Sun, Jul 30, 2017 - Mon, Jul 31, 2017 D8Wed, Aug 02, 2017 - Thu, Aug 03, 2017
D6Mon, Jul 31, 2017 - Tue, Aug 01, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260834
   SPC AC 260834

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

   Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Despite some timing differences, medium-range model consensus is
   that an expansive cold front will move off the Atlantic Coast during
   the first half of Saturday/Day 4, followed shortly thereafter by the
   upper trough axis.  While some severe threat could exist across the
   Atlantic Coast area early in the day ahead of frontal passage, and
   into the afternoon and evening across the Gulf Coast states in a
   relatively low-shear but unstable environment near the trailing
   front, risk does not appear to warrant an areal highlight at this
   time.

   As the front moves offshore and the upper pattern -- featuring a
   trough in the east and a ridge in the west -- stagnates through much
   of the remainder of the period, main potential for any severe risk
   would appear to exist from the northern Intermountain region and
   into the central and northern Plains.  However, with any risk in
   these areas tied to low predictability smaller-scale features aloft
   cresting the upper ridge, combination of uncertainty and the
   likelihood of relatively isolated/sparse risk precludes issuance of
   any risk areas through the period.

   ..Goss.. 07/26/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 26, 2017
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