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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 3, 2016
Updated: Sat Dec 3 09:41:03 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Dec 06, 2016 - Wed, Dec 07, 2016 D7Fri, Dec 09, 2016 - Sat, Dec 10, 2016
D5Wed, Dec 07, 2016 - Thu, Dec 08, 2016 D8Sat, Dec 10, 2016 - Sun, Dec 11, 2016
D6Thu, Dec 08, 2016 - Fri, Dec 09, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030939
   SPC AC 030939

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   TUESDAY (DAY 4) IT STILL APPEARS LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR
   SEVERE STORMS MIGHT PERSIST FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH SOUTH
   CAROLINA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...TENDENCY
   WILL BE FOR THIS WAVE TO DEAMPLIFY...AND ONGOING WIDESPREAD
   RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT SUGGEST
   DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED. 

   WEDNESDAY (DAY 5) PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH
   THE TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
   DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT WITHIN A
   STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

   THURSDAY (DAY 6) AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE NEAR
   THE GULF COAST AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
   LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES CONTRIBUTING TO
   INLAND PROGRESSION OF A SMALL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
   NOT SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

   ..DIAL.. 12/03/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: December 03, 2016
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