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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 2, 2015
Updated: Wed Sep 2 08:55:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sat, Sep 05, 2015 - Sun, Sep 06, 2015 D7Tue, Sep 08, 2015 - Wed, Sep 09, 2015
D5Sun, Sep 06, 2015 - Mon, Sep 07, 2015 D8Wed, Sep 09, 2015 - Thu, Sep 10, 2015
D6Mon, Sep 07, 2015 - Tue, Sep 08, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020853
   SPC AC 020853

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   PRIMARY INTEREST EARLY IN THE 4-8 PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE STORMS AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS NEWD INTO THE
   NRN PLAINS WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATE SHOULD BE AROUND THE DAY 5
   /SUNDAY/ TIME FRAME. AN E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL
   OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS INDUCED BY THE
   EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
   IMPULSE AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT. WHILE
   STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY REMAIN IN
   COOL SECTOR DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF STALLED FRONT...SUFFICIENT FLOW
   MAY SPREAD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WARM SECTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
   UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME REMAINS EVOLUTION OF EARLY STORMS. A
   CATEGORICAL RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR ERN PORTIONS OF
   THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..DIAL.. 09/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 02, 2015
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