(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 311000
SPC AC 311000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN...UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE 4-8
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INLAND
AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FL AROUND
THE DAY 5-6 PERIOD WHEN MODELS INDICATE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW OVER
THE SWRN U.S. WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF...DEAMPLIFYING
IN THE PROCESS. A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER NRN FL
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DAY 6 TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DEMONSTRATED SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE TO JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS
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