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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 19, 2017
Updated: Sun Nov 19 09:31:02 UTC 2017
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Nov 22, 2017 - Thu, Nov 23, 2017 D7Sat, Nov 25, 2017 - Sun, Nov 26, 2017
D5Thu, Nov 23, 2017 - Fri, Nov 24, 2017 D8Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - Mon, Nov 27, 2017
D6Fri, Nov 24, 2017 - Sat, Nov 25, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 190929
   SPC AC 190929

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   Synoptic upper pattern will remain dominated by a trough over the
   eastern U.S. with an upstream ridge in the west. Severe potential
   will remain generally low with this regime. An exception might be
   over the FL Peninsula around day 5 (Thursday) when models indicate a
   vorticity maximum moving through the base of the southern-stream
   trough will induce a weak cyclone over the eastern Gulf, along with
   some increase in vertical shear near a warm/stationary front.
   However, solutions differ regarding the strength of this feature,
   and the thermodynamic environment will likely remain very marginal
   which lowers overall predictability and severe potential.

   ..Dial.. 11/19/2017


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 19, 2017
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