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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 22, 2009
Updated: Sun Nov 22 09:44:03 UTC 2009
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 22, 2009
D4Wed, Nov 25, 2009 - Thu, Nov 26, 2009 D7Sat, Nov 28, 2009 - Sun, Nov 29, 2009
D5Thu, Nov 26, 2009 - Fri, Nov 27, 2009 D8Sun, Nov 29, 2009 - Mon, Nov 30, 2009
D6Fri, Nov 27, 2009 - Sat, Nov 28, 2009 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).


 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220943
   SPC AC 220943
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
   
   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE UPR FLOW REGIME
   ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   IN WAKE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES LATE IN
   THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIRMASS SWD INTO
   THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO.  THEREAFTER...NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
   TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SW BY THE WEEKEND... THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
   SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS ON BOTH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING.  RETURN
   FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
   WEEKEND.  BUT...RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY PARTIALLY
   MODIFIED.  GIVEN THE LIKELY POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE...A HIGHER-END
   SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/22/2009

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 22, 2009
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