(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030828
SPC AC 030828
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY
DAY6...PERHAPS SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS LATER DAYS7-8. TIMING OF
EJECTING SHORT WAVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AND MODULATOR REGARDING SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SCANT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD WITH TIME
ALLOW AT LEAST MODIFIED MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD SUCH THAT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ALONG A SHARPENING DRY LINE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BY DAY5...ADEQUATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...IF STRONGER
FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AS EXPECTED. TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DICTATE SEVERE RISKS DOWNSTREAM DURING LATER
PERIODS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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