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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 19, 2014
Updated: Sat Apr 19 08:39:04 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D5 98,930 888,722 Grand Island, NE...Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...Altus, OK...Hays, KS...
D4Tue, Apr 22, 2014 - Wed, Apr 23, 2014 D7Fri, Apr 25, 2014 - Sat, Apr 26, 2014
D5Wed, Apr 23, 2014 - Thu, Apr 24, 2014 D8Sat, Apr 26, 2014 - Sun, Apr 27, 2014
D6Thu, Apr 24, 2014 - Fri, Apr 25, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 190838
   SPC AC 190838

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
   WELL AS SINGLE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES.  EVEN SO THERE APPEARS
   TO BE SUPPORT FOR A WELL ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY MID WEEK
   AS SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO CNTRL NEB.  WHILE
   DETAILS OF SHORT WAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SPEED MAXIMUM DIFFER
   AMONG THE MODELS...40KT+ SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.  IF A BROADER AND MORE
   UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE EVENT...POSSIBLY OVER MULTIPLE DAYS...COULD ENSUE. 
   HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY WILL PRECLUDE DELINEATING A SEVERE
   THREAT BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

   ..DARROW.. 04/19/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: April 19, 2014
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