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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 22, 2014
Updated: Tue Jul 22 08:41:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Jul 25, 2014 - Sat, Jul 26, 2014 D7Mon, Jul 28, 2014 - Tue, Jul 29, 2014
D5Sat, Jul 26, 2014 - Sun, Jul 27, 2014 D8Tue, Jul 29, 2014 - Wed, Jul 30, 2014
D6Sun, Jul 27, 2014 - Mon, Jul 28, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220839
   SPC AC 220839

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX
   IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/FRI WILL CREST THE NRN
   GREAT PLAINS RIDGE...BEFORE TURNING SEWD AND AIDING IN THE
   BROADENING OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BY MON. WITH A
   STOUT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
   AREA...THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NRN
   ROCKIES. 

   MID-LEVEL WLYS OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES ON FRI SHOULD BECOME NWLY BY
   SUN WITH A RIBBON OF STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING
   RIDGE/TROUGH. THIS SHOULD OVERLAP PARTS OF THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND
   ERN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS EML PLUME OVER THE CORN BELT TO
   MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY. AT LEAST MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
   APPARENT IN D4-6...BUT MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TIME FRAME
   IS MUCH TOO LOW TO RELIABLY DELINEATE A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER AREA.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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