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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jul 4, 2009
Updated: Sat Jul 4 08:29:05 UTC 2009
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 4, 2009

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

D4Tue, Jul 07, 2009 - Wed, Jul 08, 2009 D7Fri, Jul 10, 2009 - Sat, Jul 11, 2009
D5Wed, Jul 08, 2009 - Thu, Jul 09, 2009 D8Sat, Jul 11, 2009 - Sun, Jul 12, 2009
D6Thu, Jul 09, 2009 - Fri, Jul 10, 2009 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040828
   SPC AC 040828
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009
   
   VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...REGIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING DAYS 5-6 /JULY 8-9/...
   
   MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT INDICATING THAT A
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON DAY 5 /WED JULY
   8/ AND CONTINUE ENEWD INTO ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON DAY 6 /THU
   JULY 9/.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE MOISTURE NWD
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK...AS AN
   EML/CAPPING INVERSION SPREADS EWD FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL RESULT
   IN THE GENERATION OF CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF THE
   UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
   BEGINNING ON DAY 5 /WED JULY 8/.  A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAK IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   EPISODE DURING THE TWO DAY PERIOD.  
   
   THEREAFTER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   UNCERTAIN AND PREDICTABILITY OF A HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT BECOMES
   MORE LIMITED BEYOND DAY 6.
   
   ..WEISS.. 07/04/2009

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 04, 2009
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