(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250811
SPC AC 250811
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY /DAY
4/...A RESIDUAL BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE
PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS. BY DAY 5
/SUNDAY/...A LOWER-LATITUDE BELT OF MODERATE FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD A
REINVIGORATING MOIST/UNSTABLE RESERVOIR OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL
SLACKENING IN FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE MESOSCALE-DRIVEN
STRONG/SEVERE EVENTS WHICH RESULT IN PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS.
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