Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 2, 2017
Updated: Sat Dec 2 07:37:02 UTC 2017
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017
D7
Fri, Dec 08, 2017 - Sat, Dec 09, 2017
D5
Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017
D8
Sat, Dec 09, 2017 - Sun, Dec 10, 2017
D6
Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020735
SPC AC 020735
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2017
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Through the upcoming week, a deep/amplified trough will organize
across the eastern half of the US. At the surface, a cold front will
push towards the Southeast on D4/Tuesday, with a cold, continental
air mass building behind it. This air mass should generally remain
in place east of the Rockies through the remainder of the week. In
turn, stable conditions will minimize the potential for severe
weather in the extended.
..Picca.. 12/02/2017
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