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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 31, 2018
Updated: Wed Jan 31 07:55:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 31, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 31, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 31, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 31, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 31, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 31, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Feb 03, 2018 - Sun, Feb 04, 2018 D7Tue, Feb 06, 2018 - Wed, Feb 07, 2018
D5Sun, Feb 04, 2018 - Mon, Feb 05, 2018 D8Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018
D6Mon, Feb 05, 2018 - Tue, Feb 06, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 310753
   SPC AC 310753

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2018

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A series of shortwave disturbances will act to amplify/reinvigorate
   a mean trough east of the Rockies during the extended period.  On
   Sunday (day 6), models vary regarding the possible inland
   penetration of a marginal warm sector in the northeast Gulf Coast
   and Carolina coastal plain, as a surface low develops over the
   northern Gulf Coast and subsequently northeastward near the Carolina
   coast.  Will maintain a conservative posture with a
   Potential-Too-Low highlight for the time being given uncertainty and
   the marginal character of the setup in the medium-range model
   guidance.  Thereafter, a quiescent period for severe will likely
   extend beyond the Wednesday (day 8) timeframe.

   ..Smith.. 01/31/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: January 31, 2018
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