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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 1, 2018
Updated: Thu Feb 1 07:15:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 1, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 1, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 1, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 1, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 1, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 1, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Feb 04, 2018 - Mon, Feb 05, 2018 D7Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018
D5Mon, Feb 05, 2018 - Tue, Feb 06, 2018 D8Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018
D6Tue, Feb 06, 2018 - Wed, Feb 07, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010713
   SPC AC 010713

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2018

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Models have been fairly consistent in showing a mean mid-level
   large-scale trough located east of the Rockies during the next week.
   Episodic shortwave troughs are forecast to glance the central Gulf
   Coast states during the extended period.  Potential for organized
   severe thunderstorms is expected to be nil except for perhaps on
   Tuesday (day 6) which may have the greatest potential for an
   eventual 15-percent severe area.  The latest model guidance hints at
   possible return flow into the central Gulf Coast states and a
   marginal warm sector developing as a surface low develops in
   response to a migratory shortwave trough.  Details are unclear at
   this time and will highlight with a predictability-worded highlight.
   A lingering low risk for strong thunderstorms on Wednesday (day 7)
   is possible dependent on detail concerning day 6 but it appears the
   overall potential for 15-percent equivalent severe will be
   lower---thus a potential-too-low highlight.

   ..Smith.. 02/01/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 01, 2018
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