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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 2, 2018
Updated: Fri Feb 2 07:49:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 2, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Feb 05, 2018 - Tue, Feb 06, 2018 D7Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018
D5Tue, Feb 06, 2018 - Wed, Feb 07, 2018 D8Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018
D6Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020746
   SPC AC 020746

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Latest medium-range model guidance suggests a significant short-wave
   trough may dig a bit farther south into the Four Corners region,
   early next week, than previous model runs suggested. While the
   GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all support this trend, the ECMWF is the most
   aggressive with height falls into the southern Rockies/High Plains
   region which would likely support a stronger lee surface low over
   northwest TX late day4 into the day5 period. If the ECMWF is
   correct, the prospect for greater moisture/instability returning to
   eastern OK/north TX ahead of the short wave will increase
   considerably along with the threat for potential robust convection.
   However, semi-persistent northwesterly flow regime has stubbornly
   refused to retrograde appreciably this winter, and the GFS/Canadian
   support a less amplified short wave. Given these uncertainties
   severe predictability will remain low early next week. Although,
   convective probabilities will increase markedly across the Arklatex
   region by Tuesday ahead of this system.

   ..Darrow.. 02/02/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 02, 2018
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