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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 3, 2018
Updated: Sat Feb 3 07:44:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 3, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 3, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 3, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 3, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 3, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 3, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Feb 06, 2018 - Wed, Feb 07, 2018 D7Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018
D5Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018 D8Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018
D6Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030742
   SPC AC 030742

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model guidance continues earlier trend regarding the
   evolution of troughing into the Four Corners region early next week.
   ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian all agree that a significant short-wave
   trough will dig into the southern Rockies during the day4 period,
   then eject in a positive-tilted manner into the Gulf States day5.
   Although the ECMWF is a bit slower with this feature, and somewhat
   more buoyant across the warm sector, surface frontal positions are
   remarkably similar with a weak surface wave expected to develop over
   north TX which should translate into the Arklatex Tuesday evening.
   While substantial deep-layer shear will spread across this region
   forecast soundings suggest poor lapse rates will limit instability
   for convection that should develop, especially across the warm
   advection corridor. Given the forecast weak lapse rates, will not
   introduce 15% severe probs; however, there appears to be an
   increasing likelihood that some severe threat could evolve near the
   Arklatex day4 which would shift toward the central Gulf Coast by
   day5. Low severe probs may be introduced in the subsequent day3
   period to account for this scenario.

   ..Darrow.. 02/03/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 03, 2018
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