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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 4, 2018
Updated: Sun Feb 4 07:50:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 4, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 4, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 4, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 4, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 4, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 4, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018 D7Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018
D5Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018 D8Sun, Feb 11, 2018 - Mon, Feb 12, 2018
D6Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040748
   SPC AC 040748

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Semi-persistent northwesterly flow regime will likely continue this
   week as latest medium-range model guidance is fairly consistent
   regarding this pattern. Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the
   beginning of the day4 period, along a southeastward-sagging frontal
   zone, extending along a corridor from the lower MS Valley into the
   central Gulf States. Forecast soundings along the central Gulf Coast
   exhibit relatively weak lapse rates but seasonally high PW values
   that should provide adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Even so,
   while a few robust storms may evolve near the coast, where surface
   dew points rise into the lower 60s, meager lapse rates and the
   likelihood for considerable post-frontal convection do not look
   particularly favorable for organized severe. However, if buoyancy is
   greater than currently expected, forecast shear profiles would favor
   the potential for organized convection which can be addressed
   if/when there is more confidence in this scenario.

   ..Darrow.. 02/04/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 04, 2018
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