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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 6, 2018
Updated: Tue Feb 6 07:45:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 6, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 6, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 6, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 6, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 6, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 6, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018 D7Mon, Feb 12, 2018 - Tue, Feb 13, 2018
D5Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018 D8Tue, Feb 13, 2018 - Wed, Feb 14, 2018
D6Sun, Feb 11, 2018 - Mon, Feb 12, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060743
   SPC AC 060743

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2018

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low through the
   medium-range period.

   Latest model guidance suggests repetitive continental air masses
   will surge into the lower latitudes of the US during the day4-8 time
   frame. While GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models suggest the
   semi-persistent northwesterly flow regime may begin to break down
   later this week, as broad cyclonic flow evolves, with troughing
   possibly establishing itself over the Rockies by day7-8. Even so,
   considerable variability exists among the models and there is little
   agreement regarding the possibility for organized deep convection.
   For these reasons it appears the probability for severe will remain
   low this period.

   ..Darrow.. 02/06/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 06, 2018
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