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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 5, 2018
Updated: Mon Mar 5 09:55:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 5, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 5, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 5, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 5, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 5, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 5, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018 D7Sun, Mar 11, 2018 - Mon, Mar 12, 2018
D5Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018 D8Mon, Mar 12, 2018 - Tue, Mar 13, 2018
D6Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050953
   SPC AC 050953

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   In the wake of the mid to late week cyclone forecast to evolve and
   impact the middle to northern Atlantic coast, medium-range models
   continue to indicate potential for vigorous upper trough
   amplification east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard late
   this week into next weekend.  It appears that this may be
   accompanied by the evolution of another significant cyclone from the
   southern Plains Red River Valley region into the upper Tennessee
   Valley/Cumberland Plateau vicinity, and renewed cyclogenesis
   near/east of the southern Mid Atlantic coast by late next weekend. 
   Guidance continues to indicate potential for fairly rapid and
   substantive moisture return off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary
   layer, which could contribute to destabilization supportive of
   increasing convective potential anywhere from portions of the
   southeastern Plains through parts of the Southeast Friday night into
   at least early Sunday.

   Given the timing of the upper wave, the progression of the initial
   surface low development and  moisture return, it currently appears
   that convective potential may be maximized east of the lower
   Mississippi Valley Saturday/Saturday night.  However, guidance is
   suggestive that considerable thunderstorm development may evolve
   along a warm frontal zone perhaps near/just south of northeast Gulf
   coastal areas from Louisiana to near Tampa FL.  This could
   negatively impact the development of any severe weather potential
   inland of coastal areas, except perhaps near the Tampa Bay area
   Saturday evening.  Even there, due to sizable lingering
   uncertainties associated with the synoptic and sub-synoptic pattern
   evolution and the extended time frame, severe probabilities still
   appear less than 15 percent at the present time.

   ..Kerr.. 03/05/2018

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Page last modified: March 05, 2018
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