Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 23, 2017
Updated: Thu Feb 23 20:29:02 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D6 53,834 1,027,633 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...
D3Sat, Feb 25, 2017 - Sun, Feb 26, 2017 D6Tue, Feb 28, 2017 - Wed, Mar 01, 2017
D4Sun, Feb 26, 2017 - Mon, Feb 27, 2017 D7Wed, Mar 01, 2017 - Thu, Mar 02, 2017
D5Mon, Feb 27, 2017 - Tue, Feb 28, 2017 D8Thu, Mar 02, 2017 - Fri, Mar 03, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232027

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 031200Z

   Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during the day 3-8
   period. Fire weather concerns will generally remain confined to the
   southern Plains during this time, mainly in the day 4/Sun-day 6/Tue
   time frame. 

   One difference noted is a shortwave trough ejecting across the
   southern Rockies on day 4/Sun depicted by the GFS. The ECMWF
   maintains more zonal westerly flow across the southern Rockies
   during this time. However, both have strong deep layer westerlies
   with a well-defined lee trough developing. This should lead to at
   least elevated fire potential across the southern High Plains on day
   4/Sun with gusty surface southwesterly winds and low RH continuing
   in conjunction with dry fuels. On day 5/Mon, a larger-scale upper
   trough will deepen over the western U.S. and strong southwesterly
   deep layer flow will continue across the southern Rockies. Another
   lee low/surface trough will develop along the central and southern
   high Plains with gusty downslope winds contributing to another day
   of elevated fire weather potential. 

   By day 6/Tue, the western trough will eject eastward into the Plains
   during the nighttime hours. Ahead of the trough, deep layer
   southwesterly flow will increase and another, stronger lee cyclone
   is expected to develop and shift east across parts of the
   central/southern Plains and eventually toward the MS River. There is
   some discrepancy between medium range guidance in the exact strength
   and track of the surface low and this could impact how widespread
   the development of critical fire weather conditions becomes.
   Regardless, this is a favorable pattern for strong southwest surface
   winds and very low RH conditions across the southern high Plains and
   elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected. 

   By days 7-8/Wed-Thu, fire weather concerns will diminish as a highly
   amplified ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and the upper trough
   shifts eastward over the eastern U.S.

   ..Leitman.. 02/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 23, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities