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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 19, 2017
Updated: Sun Nov 19 20:07:02 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Nov 21, 2017 - Wed, Nov 22, 2017 D6Fri, Nov 24, 2017 - Sat, Nov 25, 2017
D4Wed, Nov 22, 2017 - Thu, Nov 23, 2017 D7Sat, Nov 25, 2017 - Sun, Nov 26, 2017
D5Thu, Nov 23, 2017 - Fri, Nov 24, 2017 D8Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - Mon, Nov 27, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 192005

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   For much of the extended period, an amplified upper ridge is
   expected to remain in place over the Southwest, while a large-scale
   upper trough covers much of the central and eastern CONUS.
   Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will favor periodic bouts of dry
   and windy conditions across portions of the High Plains, with
   temperatures remaining warm enough to support some fire weather
   threat through the week. Across southern CA, weak offshore flow will
   support warm and dry conditions for much of the week, but generally
   light winds are expected to preclude a more substantial fire weather
   threat in that area. 

   ...D3/Tuesday: Portions of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas...
   Guidance has trended somewhat stronger with post-frontal
   northeasterly flow across portions of southeast NM and west TX on
   Tuesday. With slightly above-average temperatures expected even
   behind the front, critical conditions may develop as winds increase
   to 20-30 mph as RH values drop near or below 15%. A 40% area has
   been included to cover this threat, with some portion of the area
   potentially requiring an upgrade to critical in subsequent outlooks.

   ...D6/Friday: Portions of the Central Plains...
   While there are some differences regarding timing and location,
   guidance is in generally good agreement showing a strong surface
   cyclone developing across the southern Canadian Prairie provinces on
   Thursday and moving eastward on Friday. Warm, dry, and very windy
   conditions will be possible to the southwest of the low track across
   portions of the central (and perhaps northern) Plains, resulting in
   a potential fire weather threat. Due to predictability concerns
   regarding the timing and location of the greatest threat, no 40%
   areas have been introduced, but probabilities may eventually be
   needed if current model trends continue.

   ..Dean.. 11/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: November 19, 2017
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