Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire
Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical).
Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination
of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast.
Please read the Product Description Document (PDD),
Public Information Notice (PNS),
and provide feedback using this link:
The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing,
revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production. Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic
Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind)
Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the
Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link:
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232123
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
VALID 251200Z - 311200Z
IN THE MID LEVELS...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE FROM THE E
PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND AND ADVANCE EWD INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/STRONG SFC WINDS RELATED TO THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES AND MAY COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY REDUCED
SFC RH TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST FIRE-WEATHER RISK. THIS WOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOLSTERS BOUNDARY-LAYER
WARMING/DRYING IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT BASIN TO WY FOR D3/SAT AND D4/SUN. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
DRYING EXIST. FURTHERMORE...MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT...IN
THE ABSENCE OF A WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
WILL BE UNLIKELY. AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PAST MONTH MAY ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. AS
SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WARMING/DRYING SFC CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA INCLUDING
THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES OCCASIONALLY ENHANCED SFC WINDS FOR D5/MON INTO
D8/THU ACROSS THE SRN-CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHICH
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FIRE-WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER...WITH THE
BULK OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE
ABSENCE OF A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / A LACK OF STRONG SFC
WINDS...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT