Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192100
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
A western U.S. mid/upper-level trough and an eastern U.S. ridge are
forecast to remain in place through much of the extended forecast
period. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast
to round the base of the larger-scale trough over the southwest,
with the most vigorous wave ejecting out into the southern High
Plains Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee surface
troughing is forecast to develop/strengthen over portions of
northeast NM and far southeast CO.
...Day 5/Friday through Day 7/Sunday - Portions of the southern High
Downslope westerly surface flow is expected to intensify Day
5/Friday in response to the strengthening of the aforementioned lee
surface cyclone and as strong mid-level winds associated with the
shortwave trough overspread the area. However, latest
ensemble/deterministic guidance continues to disagree with both the
magnitude of the low-level wind field and the degree of low-level
drying. While there is potential for critical fire weather
conditions on Day 5/Friday -- especially considering ongoing drought
conditions -- the degree of uncertainty precludes upgrading
probabilities. Thus, the inherited 40% Day 5/Friday probabilities
were maintained, with only minor modifications based on most recent
guidance. Critical fire weather conditions may continue Day
6/Saturday and/or Day 7/Sunday, however, model dispersion regarding
the evolution of the shortwave trough is currently too large to
introduce probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT