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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 19, 2018
Updated: Mon Feb 19 21:02:03 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Feb 21, 2018 - Thu, Feb 22, 2018 D6Sat, Feb 24, 2018 - Sun, Feb 25, 2018
D4Thu, Feb 22, 2018 - Fri, Feb 23, 2018 D7Sun, Feb 25, 2018 - Mon, Feb 26, 2018
D5Fri, Feb 23, 2018 - Sat, Feb 24, 2018 D8Mon, Feb 26, 2018 - Tue, Feb 27, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 192100

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   A western U.S. mid/upper-level trough and an eastern U.S. ridge are
   forecast to remain in place through much of the extended forecast
   period. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast
   to round the base of the larger-scale trough over the southwest,
   with the most vigorous wave ejecting out into the southern High
   Plains Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee surface
   troughing is forecast to develop/strengthen over portions of
   northeast NM and far southeast CO. 

   ...Day 5/Friday through Day 7/Sunday - Portions of the southern High
   Downslope westerly surface flow is expected to intensify Day
   5/Friday in response to the strengthening of the aforementioned lee
   surface cyclone and as strong mid-level winds associated with the
   shortwave trough overspread the area. However, latest
   ensemble/deterministic guidance continues to disagree with both the
   magnitude of the low-level wind field and the degree of low-level
   drying. While there is potential for critical fire weather
   conditions on Day 5/Friday -- especially considering ongoing drought
   conditions -- the degree of uncertainty precludes upgrading
   probabilities. Thus, the inherited 40% Day 5/Friday probabilities
   were maintained, with only minor modifications based on most recent
   guidance. Critical fire weather conditions may continue Day
   6/Saturday and/or Day 7/Sunday, however, model dispersion regarding
   the evolution of the shortwave trough is currently too large to
   introduce probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Elliott.. 02/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: February 19, 2018
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