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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 23, 2014
Updated: Wed Jul 23 21:47:04 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 45,977 173,044 Rock Springs, WY...Green River, WY...Havre, MT...Rawlins, WY...
D3Fri, Jul 25, 2014 - Sat, Jul 26, 2014 D6Mon, Jul 28, 2014 - Tue, Jul 29, 2014
D4Sat, Jul 26, 2014 - Sun, Jul 27, 2014 D7Tue, Jul 29, 2014 - Wed, Jul 30, 2014
D5Sun, Jul 27, 2014 - Mon, Jul 28, 2014 D8Wed, Jul 30, 2014 - Thu, Jul 31, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232145

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 311200Z

   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...ACTING TO
   DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
   OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
   AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS
   OVER THE ERN CONUS.  THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
   EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
   WY/MT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A WARMING/DRYING
   TREND FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL...
   ENHANCED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
   RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT BASIN INTO WY AND MT ON FRIDAY /D3/.  GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
   OVER THE REGION...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL RH
   VALUES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE
   JUXTAPOSITION OF CRITICAL WINDS AND RH ON FRIDAY /D3/ APPEARS MOST
   LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL MT AND SCNTRL WY.  ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
   FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER WY/MT ON SATURDAY
   /D4/...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SRN
   WY.

   ...DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST...WARMING AND DRYING
   WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD ON
   SUNDAY /D5/...MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
   APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE CA/ORE COAST. 
   DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN CA/WRN ORE.  ALTHOUGH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST BEYOND SUNDAY
   /D5/ ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST/ROCKIES...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..JIRAK.. 07/23/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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