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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 14, 2017
Updated: Thu Dec 14 21:24:03 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 2,133 5,519,004 Los Angeles, CA...Glendale, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Pasadena, CA...Thousand Oaks, CA...
D3Sat, Dec 16, 2017 - Sun, Dec 17, 2017 D6Tue, Dec 19, 2017 - Wed, Dec 20, 2017
D4Sun, Dec 17, 2017 - Mon, Dec 18, 2017 D7Wed, Dec 20, 2017 - Thu, Dec 21, 2017
D5Mon, Dec 18, 2017 - Tue, Dec 19, 2017 D8Thu, Dec 21, 2017 - Fri, Dec 22, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142122

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   An active pattern for fire weather concerns will continue across the
   CONUS through D8/Thu Dec 21.  Low-level cyclogenesis will occur
   across the Plains downstream of a strong mid-level trough that will
   decelerate over the Southwest through D5/Mon.  Meanwhile, periodic
   surges of high pressure in the Great Basin will heighten fire
   weather concerns across California throughout the extended period,
   with greatest potential occurring around the D3/Sat-D4/Sun
   timeframe.

   ...Central and Southern California...
   Aforementioned high pressure will settle into the Great Basin and
   remain there through early D4/Mon, setting up a strong offshore
   pressure gradient.  Periods of gusty northeasterly/easterly surface
   flow will once again persist especially in terrain-favored areas of
   southern California amidst a pre-existing dry airmass.  A
   70%/critical area remains in place on D4/Sun across Ventura and Los
   Angeles counties where greatest confidence exists of critical
   wind/RH amidst dry fuels.  Critical upgrades may also be needed on
   D3/Sat and also for part of D5/Mon in later outlooks if guidance
   trends lower in its depiction of surface RH.

   For this update, an expansive area of 40% probabilities have been
   extended northward to include areas along the California coast and
   into the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento Valley areas.  Dry
   northerly flow will increase to around 30 mph in terrain-favored and
   higher elevation areas in conjunction with falling RH values (around
   20-25%).  

   Late in the forecast period (around D7/Wed onward), models hint at
   another potential Santa Ana event developing as the offshore
   pressure gradient restrengthens over southern California.  Specific
   timing regarding the onset of elevated to critical fire weather is
   still in question at this time frame, although probabilities will
   likely be needed in later outlooks given the synoptic scenario and
   minimal precipitation chances in the coming week.

   ...D3/Sat - Portions of the central and southern Great Plains...
   Southerly to southwesterly surface flow will increase in many areas
   in response to a deepening surface low over southeastern Colorado. 
   The region will reside on the northern periphery of deeper boundary
   layer moisture advection across the western Gulf of Mexico, with
   insolation and mixing promoting widespread areas of 20-25% RH values
   during peak heating hours.  At this time, it appears that the
   greatest chance of critical fire weather conditions will exist in
   portions of eastern New Mexico (where RH values will approach
   critical thresholds) and also across the Oklahoma and Texas
   Panhandles (where surface wind speeds will be the strongest).  40%
   probabilities remain in place for this region, however, as guidance
   continues to depict RH values a bit too high to justify upgrades at
   this time.

   ..Cook.. 12/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: December 14, 2017
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