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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 30, 2017
Updated: Sun Apr 30 20:25:03 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, May 02, 2017 - Wed, May 03, 2017 D6Fri, May 05, 2017 - Sat, May 06, 2017
D4Wed, May 03, 2017 - Thu, May 04, 2017 D7Sat, May 06, 2017 - Sun, May 07, 2017
D5Thu, May 04, 2017 - Fri, May 05, 2017 D8Sun, May 07, 2017 - Mon, May 08, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302023

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

   Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

   A longwave trough, initially over the Great Lakes at the beginning
   of the forecast period, will continue to lift away from the Lower 48
   through D5/Thu as another lower-amplitude trough migrates
   southeastward from the Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi
   Valley.  Meanwhile, a ridge will develop across the Intermountain
   West/Great Basin areas, although this ridge will be relatively
   short-lived as another long-wave trough approaches the West Coast
   from D6/Fri onward.

   At the surface, a lee surface low will develop in west Texas and
   strengthen briefly around the D3/Tue-D4/Wed timeframe before
   migrating eastward along the Gulf Coast states through D5/Thu.  Late
   in the forecast period (D6/Fri onward), models depict varying
   degrees of low-pressure in the Great Basin associated with the
   approaching mid/upper trough that will foster a favorable surface
   pressure gradient for dry southerly flow in the West along with
   increased fire weather concerns.  The details of these synoptic
   features are unclear, however, as well as the extent of the
   resulting fire weather threat in these areas.

   ...D3/Tue - Southern Rockies...
   Westerly flow will increase and approach critical thresholds in this
   region west of a gradually deepening surface low near the New
   Mexico/Texas border area D3/Tue afternoon.  This flow will occur
   amidst a continued dry airmass, with near-critical RH values in
   central New Mexico decreasing to single-digit RH values near the
   International Border region.  The overall fire weather scenario
   doesn't appear to support widespread critical fire weather
   conditions at this time, although pockets of locally/briefly
   critical fire weather conditions appear likely in southern New
   Mexico during peak heating D3/Tue afternoon, and a critical upgrade
   in this region is not completely out of the question in later
   outlooks.

   ...D6/Fri - Portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley...
   Models are not particularly consistent with regard to depiction of
   synoptic features associated with the fire weather threat at this
   timeframe.  Enough consistency exists, however, to highlight
   potential for at least elevated fire weather conditions in the
   region as dry, southerly surface flow increases in advance of the
   approaching mid/upper trough.  Widespread critical RH values should
   exist in the region around that time frame, which will likely
   co-exist with dry fuels in the region.  A 40%/elevated delineation
   has been made for D6/Fri, and reconfigurations of this area and/or
   additional areal delineations will occur in later outlooks as
   details regarding the approaching trough become clearer in later
   model cycles.

   ..Cook.. 04/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: April 30, 2017
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