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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 29, 2015
Updated: Sun Mar 29 22:02:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 100,408 1,940,684 Albuquerque, NM...Amarillo, TX...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Flagstaff, AZ...
D5 234,421 5,213,419 El Paso, TX...Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...
D3Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - Wed, Apr 01, 2015 D6Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - Sat, Apr 04, 2015
D4Wed, Apr 01, 2015 - Thu, Apr 02, 2015 D7Sat, Apr 04, 2015 - Sun, Apr 05, 2015
D5Thu, Apr 02, 2015 - Fri, Apr 03, 2015 D8Sun, Apr 05, 2015 - Mon, Apr 06, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292200

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

   AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SWRN U.S. AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IN THE EXTENDED FIRE WEATHER PERIOD.
   MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
   CONUS...AND STRONG LOW- TO MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING ONE OF THESE
   TROUGHS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN/SRN CONUS FROM D4/WED
   THROUGH D6/FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ESPECIALLY ON D4/WED AND D5/THU.

   ...D3/TUE: PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES
   ON D3/TUE...ENHANCED LOW- TO MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED POCKETS
   OF STRONG WINDS/LOWERED RH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN TUE AFTERNOON...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
   STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND FINE-FUEL DRYNESS TO INTRODUCE A 70
   PERCENT AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DID ADD A 40 PERCENT AREA TO
   PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS SHOULD
   HELP RH VALUES FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   WINDS. THIS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR
   PORTIONS OF SRN MT AND N-CNTRL/ERN WY TUE AFTERNOON.

   ...D4/WED: PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY ON D4/WED SHOULD
   PROGRESS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY D5/THU. AT THE SFC...A
   COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
   DAY. STRONG NWLY WINDS ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
   COMBINE WITH REDUCED RH VALUES TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO
   NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
   PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S
   MAY LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...AND
   THEREFORE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED A 70 PERCENT AREA AT THIS TIME.

   ...D4/WED - D5/THU: MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D4/WED INTO
   D5/THU...AND STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A
   MULTIDAY PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG WLY FLOW AT
   THE SFC WED AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM ERN AZ ACROSS NM AND INTO THE
   WRN TX PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY ASSIST IN DRYING/WARMING THE LOW LEVELS
   SUCH THAT RH VALUES FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MORE THAN THREE
   HOURS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES
   REGARDING FUEL RECEPTIVENESS...A 70 PERCENT AREA IMPLYING CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION ON
   D4/WED. NOT ALL AREAS WITHIN THE 70 PERCENT DESIGNATION HAVE READY
   FUELS...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW IS STILL ON THE
   GROUND...BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL FORECAST
   PARAMETERS...A 70 PERCENT AREA IS JUSTIFIED.

   BASED ON THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...A MORE
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON D5/THU
   ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS D4/WED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED
   ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING THU AFTERNOON AS A BELT OF ENHANCED
   MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL
   LEVELS...PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE...A 70
   PERCENT AREA HAS ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED FOR D5/THU FOR MUCH OF ERN
   AZ...SERN UT...SWRN WY...MOST OF NM...AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX. FUELS
   WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF PRE-CONDITIONING FROM D4/WED...AND
   WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE LAST 7
   DAYS...FINE FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO BURN. EXPECT
   ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH 70 PERCENT AREAS IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...D6/FRI: MUCH OF NM AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON D4/WED
   AND D5/THU SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER THE PLAINS ON D6/FRI. A
   RESIDUAL AREA OF ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF NM AND PORTIONS OF
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS FRI AFTERNOON
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH
   ASSOCIATED WARMING/DRYING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...RH VALUES MAY
   FALL NEAR/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 40 PERCENT AREA
   FOR THIS REGION WHILE EXPANDING IT SLIGHTLY EWD TO ENCOMPASS A
   LARGER PORTION OF WRN TX. A 70 PERCENT DELINEATION MAY BE NEEDED IN
   FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
   ACROSS THIS REGION INCREASES.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/29/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: March 29, 2015
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