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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 2, 2015
Updated: Wed Sep 2 20:42:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 63,066 1,957,875 Las Vegas, NV...Henderson, NV...Paradise, NV...Sunrise Manor, NV...North Las Vegas, NV...
D3Fri, Sep 04, 2015 - Sat, Sep 05, 2015 D6Mon, Sep 07, 2015 - Tue, Sep 08, 2015
D4Sat, Sep 05, 2015 - Sun, Sep 06, 2015 D7Tue, Sep 08, 2015 - Wed, Sep 09, 2015
D5Sun, Sep 06, 2015 - Mon, Sep 07, 2015 D8Wed, Sep 09, 2015 - Thu, Sep 10, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022040

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 101200Z

   A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE NWRN CONUS/GREAT BASIN THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE
   EJECTING EWD/ENEWD TO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. A
   WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
   AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS AMIDST LOW RH...SUPPORTING AREAS OF
   ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

   FOR D3/FRI...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATE THE MUTUAL OVERLAP OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ACROSS PARTS
   OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN NV AND WRN UT WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
   LIMITED IN MANY AREAS. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
   INCLUDED...SURROUNDED BY MARGINAL DESIGNATION ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF
   NV/UT EXTENDING INTO SERN ID WHERE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY.

   SOME FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND FROM PARTS OF SRN/ERN NV TO
   CNTRL WY ON D4/SAT...SPREADING ENEWD AND AFFECTING PARTS OF WY AND
   SERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB ON D5/SUN...AS THE TROUGH
   EJECTS EWD/ENEWD. MARGINAL AREAS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR BOTH OF
   THESE DAYS...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND
   OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION EXTEND TO THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK.
   FURTHERMORE...AREAS OF LESS-FAVORABLE FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD --
   ENCOURAGED BY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BEFORE SFC DRYING ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES TO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS -- MAY MITIGATE
   THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK OVER SOME LOCATIONS. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS
   HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED FOR D4/SAT OR D5/SUN...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

   FOR D6/MON...D7/TUE...AND D8/WED...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL
   SOLUTIONS EXIST...AND THE BULK OF THESE SOLUTIONS OFFER LITTLE
   POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE FACTORS
   PRECLUDE PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 09/02/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: September 02, 2015
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