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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 7, 2015
Updated: Tue Jul 7 20:17:03 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Jul 09, 2015 - Fri, Jul 10, 2015 D6Sun, Jul 12, 2015 - Mon, Jul 13, 2015
D4Fri, Jul 10, 2015 - Sat, Jul 11, 2015 D7Mon, Jul 13, 2015 - Tue, Jul 14, 2015
D5Sat, Jul 11, 2015 - Sun, Jul 12, 2015 D8Tue, Jul 14, 2015 - Wed, Jul 15, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072015

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

   VALID 091200Z - 151200Z

   A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. 
   WITH TIME...THIS UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN WHILE EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN
   WAVE...WHILE ENHANCING MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE
   WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ANOTHER
   WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD
   BRITISH COLUMBIA IN THE D5/SAT-D7/MON TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
   IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WIND/HEIGHT
   FIELDS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN WESTWARD
   DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
   D5/SAT...SOUTHERN PLAINS ON D6/SUN...AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
   D7/MON.

   ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
   DESPITE THE FAVORABLE RIDGE-BREAKDOWN PATTERN FOR AN INCREASED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT IN THE WEST...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND WETTING RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL TEMPER
   ANY LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
   SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SOME RISK FOR AT LEAST AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST DUE TO 15-20 MPH SSWLY
   SURFACE FLOW IN THE AREA ON D3/THU...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   AFTERNOON RH WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR A MORE EXTENSIVE THREAT. 
   FUEL RECEPTIVENESS IS ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
   OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE ON D3/THU.  THE 40 PERCENT DELINEATION ISSUED IN
   YESTERDAY/S OUTLOOK HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST DESPITE
   AFOREMENTIONED DETRACTORS FOR A HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LATER FORECASTS. 

   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
   VERY DRY FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND ALTHOUGH WETTING STORMS HAVE OCCURRED IN A
   FEW AREAS IN RECENT DAYS...A FEW LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRES HAVE
   OCCURRED IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED MINIMAL RAINFALL DISPLACED FROM
   HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS.  A THREAT FOR CONTINUED
   LIGHTNING-INDUCED ACTIVITY WILL EXIST ON D3/THU IN PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A SPECIFIC AREA OF DRY
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE PROBABILITIES IN
   THIS FORECAST.  THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. 

   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   PARTS OF THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE IN
   THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY FUELS
   SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES.
   WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT A MORE EXTENSIVE THREAT UNTIL D5/SAT...WHEN
   MODELS GENERALLY INCREASE DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE REGION IN
   RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. 
   CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLVING THREAT IS TOO LOW FOR
   PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT IN THE
   EXTENT OF STRENGTHENING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

   ..COOK.. 07/07/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: July 07, 2015
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