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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 16, 2017
Updated: Mon Oct 16 21:22:03 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Oct 18, 2017 - Thu, Oct 19, 2017 D6Sat, Oct 21, 2017 - Sun, Oct 22, 2017
D4Thu, Oct 19, 2017 - Fri, Oct 20, 2017 D7Sun, Oct 22, 2017 - Mon, Oct 23, 2017
D5Fri, Oct 20, 2017 - Sat, Oct 21, 2017 D8Mon, Oct 23, 2017 - Tue, Oct 24, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162120

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   A progressive upper pattern is forecast to continue across the CONUS
   from Day 3/Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. A large-scale
   upper trough should amplify while moving quickly from the eastern
   Pacific to the Plains from Day 4/Thursday to Day 7/Sunday. An upper
   ridge is then forecast to develop over much of the western CONUS
   from Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday. Subsidence beneath this upper
   ridge should promote a broad area of surface high pressure across
   the Great Basin.

   ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday: Portions of the Northern/Central
   High Plains...
   Enhanced southwesterly mid-level winds associated with the
   previously mentioned upper trough will overspread parts of the
   northern and central High Plains beginning on Day 4/Thursday and
   continuing into Day 5/Friday. Some of these winds may reach the
   surface through diurnal mixing of the boundary layer and overlap
   with pockets of reduced RH values. However, the degree of low-level
   warming/drying remains too uncertain to include probabilities for
   critical fire weather conditions for any part of the
   northern/central Plains at this time.

   ...Day 6/Saturday - Day 8/Monday: Portions of Southern CA...
   A prolonged moderate to perhaps locally strong offshore wind event
   may begin around Day 6/Saturday and continue through the end of the
   forecast period across parts of southern CA. Latest medium-range
   guidance remains in general agreement that the surface pressure
   gradient will strengthen to near-critical thresholds by Saturday
   night, and the potential for critical fire weather conditions 
   through next Monday remains apparent.

   Given the forecast prolonged nature of this offshore flow event,
   have opted to maintain 40%/marginal probabilities for Day 6/Saturday
   and Day 7/Sunday with no changes, while also introducing a
   40%/marginal area for Day 8/Monday. A 40%/marginal area has also
   been included for part of the lower CO River Valley on Day
   6/Saturday. If model guidance begins to suggest an even stronger
   pressure gradient across southern CA during some portion of this
   time frame, then 70%/critical probabilities may be needed.

   ..Gleason.. 10/16/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: October 16, 2017
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