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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 19, 2014
Updated: Fri Dec 19 19:34:03 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Dec 21, 2014 - Mon, Dec 22, 2014 D6Wed, Dec 24, 2014 - Thu, Dec 25, 2014
D4Mon, Dec 22, 2014 - Tue, Dec 23, 2014 D7Thu, Dec 25, 2014 - Fri, Dec 26, 2014
D5Tue, Dec 23, 2014 - Wed, Dec 24, 2014 D8Fri, Dec 26, 2014 - Sat, Dec 27, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 191932

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 271200Z

   AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CONUS
   DURING THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS...DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 4/MON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
   EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ON SHORE
   AND ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. BY THURSDAY/DAY 7 MORNING...THE UPPER
   TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
   MON/TUE-DAYS 4/5. SOME STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
   FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE A
   DRY AIRMASS WILL ALIGN WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES
   WILL PRECLUDE RH VALUES FROM FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. 
   ADDITIONALLY...RECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MOIST FUEL CONDITIONS.  

   AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD AROUND
   TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY-DAYS 5/6...SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   TEMPER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 

   ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
   RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...FALLING HEIGHTS AND
   INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY
   LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME GIVEN
   RUN-TO-RUN MODEL FORECAST INCONSISTENCIES.

   ..LEITMAN.. 12/19/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: December 19, 2014
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