Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192005
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
For much of the extended period, an amplified upper ridge is
expected to remain in place over the Southwest, while a large-scale
upper trough covers much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will favor periodic bouts of dry
and windy conditions across portions of the High Plains, with
temperatures remaining warm enough to support some fire weather
threat through the week. Across southern CA, weak offshore flow will
support warm and dry conditions for much of the week, but generally
light winds are expected to preclude a more substantial fire weather
threat in that area.
...D3/Tuesday: Portions of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas...
Guidance has trended somewhat stronger with post-frontal
northeasterly flow across portions of southeast NM and west TX on
Tuesday. With slightly above-average temperatures expected even
behind the front, critical conditions may develop as winds increase
to 20-30 mph as RH values drop near or below 15%. A 40% area has
been included to cover this threat, with some portion of the area
potentially requiring an upgrade to critical in subsequent outlooks.
...D6/Friday: Portions of the Central Plains...
While there are some differences regarding timing and location,
guidance is in generally good agreement showing a strong surface
cyclone developing across the southern Canadian Prairie provinces on
Thursday and moving eastward on Friday. Warm, dry, and very windy
conditions will be possible to the southwest of the low track across
portions of the central (and perhaps northern) Plains, resulting in
a potential fire weather threat. Due to predictability concerns
regarding the timing and location of the greatest threat, no 40%
areas have been introduced, but probabilities may eventually be
needed if current model trends continue.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT