Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 19, 2013
Updated: Wed Jun 19 20:24:42 UTC 2013 (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
MS-Word or
PDF. Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire
Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical).
Scalloped areas will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes,
generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast.
Please read the Product Description Document (PDD),
Public Information Notice (PNS),
and provide feedback using this link:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO.
The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing,
revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production. Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic
Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind)
Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the
Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link:
http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Albuquerque, NM...Colorado Springs, CO...Pueblo, CO...Flagstaff, AZ...Farmington, NM...
D3
Fri, Jun 21, 2013 - Sat, Jun 22, 2013
D6
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - Tue, Jun 25, 2013
D4
Sat, Jun 22, 2013 - Sun, Jun 23, 2013
D7
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - Wed, Jun 26, 2013
D5
Sun, Jun 23, 2013 - Mon, Jun 24, 2013
D8
Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - Thu, Jun 27, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192001
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VALID 211200Z - 271200Z
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE DAY 3-8
PERIOD...UNTIL AROUND DAY 7-8/TUE-WED. A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER ROUGHLY ALONG THE ROCKIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING WETTER CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE PAC NW AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
GUIDANCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MAINLY AFFECT WHERE DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
OTHERWISE...DRY/HOT/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
MAINLY THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5
OR 6/SUN OR MON.
...DAY 3/FRI - FOUR CORNERS INTO PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW OVER FAR ERN CO/WRN KS WILL DEVELOP
WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING S/SWWD NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND MIXING OCCURS...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN AZ...SRN UT...SRN CO INTO NRN NM...AND A
CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN ADDED. BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS SE CO
INTO NE NM...WINDS/DRYING WILL BE ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
ROCKIES AS WELL AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS MUCH OF AZ...CNTRL/SW
NM...PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...ERN/NRN CO AND CNTRL/ERN
UT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL BUT AN ELEVATED THREAT WILL
CONTINUE.
...DAY 4-5/SAT-SUN FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY WINDS AND DRY/HOT CONDITIONS PERSISTING AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
TOWARD THE NE. ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE. COVERAGE/DURATION OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY IS UNCLEAR...SO WILL NOT DELINEATE ANY
AREAS AT THIS TIME BUT MAINTAIN 40 PERCENT AREAS.
...DAY 3-8 DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NM/ERN AZ. DRY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAY INCREASE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK
AS THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE EWD.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AREAS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO DELINEATE ANY
MARGINAL OR CRITICAL AREAS HOWEVER.
..LEITMAN.. 06/19/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
