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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 302023
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
A longwave trough, initially over the Great Lakes at the beginning
of the forecast period, will continue to lift away from the Lower 48
through D5/Thu as another lower-amplitude trough migrates
southeastward from the Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Meanwhile, a ridge will develop across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin areas, although this ridge will be relatively
short-lived as another long-wave trough approaches the West Coast
from D6/Fri onward.
At the surface, a lee surface low will develop in west Texas and
strengthen briefly around the D3/Tue-D4/Wed timeframe before
migrating eastward along the Gulf Coast states through D5/Thu. Late
in the forecast period (D6/Fri onward), models depict varying
degrees of low-pressure in the Great Basin associated with the
approaching mid/upper trough that will foster a favorable surface
pressure gradient for dry southerly flow in the West along with
increased fire weather concerns. The details of these synoptic
features are unclear, however, as well as the extent of the
resulting fire weather threat in these areas.
...D3/Tue - Southern Rockies...
Westerly flow will increase and approach critical thresholds in this
region west of a gradually deepening surface low near the New
Mexico/Texas border area D3/Tue afternoon. This flow will occur
amidst a continued dry airmass, with near-critical RH values in
central New Mexico decreasing to single-digit RH values near the
International Border region. The overall fire weather scenario
doesn't appear to support widespread critical fire weather
conditions at this time, although pockets of locally/briefly
critical fire weather conditions appear likely in southern New
Mexico during peak heating D3/Tue afternoon, and a critical upgrade
in this region is not completely out of the question in later
...D6/Fri - Portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley...
Models are not particularly consistent with regard to depiction of
synoptic features associated with the fire weather threat at this
timeframe. Enough consistency exists, however, to highlight
potential for at least elevated fire weather conditions in the
region as dry, southerly surface flow increases in advance of the
approaching mid/upper trough. Widespread critical RH values should
exist in the region around that time frame, which will likely
co-exist with dry fuels in the region. A 40%/elevated delineation
has been made for D6/Fri, and reconfigurations of this area and/or
additional areal delineations will occur in later outlooks as
details regarding the approaching trough become clearer in later
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT