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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 19, 2017
Updated: Thu Jan 19 19:51:03 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 24,353 1,461,313 Corpus Christi, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...
D3Sat, Jan 21, 2017 - Sun, Jan 22, 2017 D6Tue, Jan 24, 2017 - Wed, Jan 25, 2017
D4Sun, Jan 22, 2017 - Mon, Jan 23, 2017 D7Wed, Jan 25, 2017 - Thu, Jan 26, 2017
D5Mon, Jan 23, 2017 - Tue, Jan 24, 2017 D8Thu, Jan 26, 2017 - Fri, Jan 27, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 191949

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   A large-scale trough will develop in the Western U.S. at the
   beginning of the forecast period as a powerful (120 kt) mid-level
   jet develops eastward into far Southern California and Northern
   Mexico.  With time, this belt of stronger flow will migrate eastward
   along the southern tier of the U.S. as a significant shortwave
   develops over the Southern Rockies/Plains.  The longer wave trough
   over the West will only make slow eastward progress with time, and
   very strong mid/upper flow will persist with this slowly evolving
   synoptic feature.

   At the surface, periods of cyclogenesis across the Plains and
   Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley will foster substantial downslope flow
   and reinforce a generally dry pattern (especially across portions of
   the Plains and southward to the Rio Grande Valley), which will
   foster period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

   ...D3/Sat through D6/Tue - Portions of the Southern Plains...
   The aforementioned favorable synoptic pattern will foster multiple
   days of dry downslope flow in portions of Eastern New Mexico and
   West/South Texas during the period.  On D3/Sat, a lee cyclone over
   northeastern New Mexico will foster areas of 30-40 mph surface winds
   (with higher gusts) and 25-30% RH values in southeastern New Mexico,
   along with gradually drying fuels.  Winds will be somewhat weaker in
   South Texas along the Rio Grande Valley, although the airmass and
   underlying fuels will be somewhat drier.  Have added 40%/elevated
   areas to address elevated to locally critical fire weather potential
   in these areas.

   On D4/Sun, the northeastern New Mexico low will deepen and move to
   the Memphis, Tennessee vicinity by afternoon.  As this occurs, a
   favorable pressure gradient and some vertical mixing will foster
   northwesterly low-level flow in much of the Southern Plains -
   strongest in central and south Texas.  Pronounced drying will also
   occur, with RH values falling below 15% in portions of eastern New
   Mexico and south Texas by afternoon.  Areal adjustments have been
   made to the ongoing 40%/elevated area and a 70%/critical area has
   been introduced for much of south Texas after some coordination with
   local offices in the affected areas.  

   On D5/Mon and D6/Tue, another deepening low will reinforce the
   westerly downslope flow pattern across portions of the southern and
   central Plains, although confidence is a bit low regarding the
   extent of low-level drying, especially D5/Mon afternoon. 
   Nevertheless, a favorable synoptic pattern for continued dry
   atmospheric conditions and drying fuels suggests enough of a fire
   weather risk to introduce 40%/elevated areas during this time
   period, with the associated threat spreading eastward into central
   Oklahoma and north central Texas on D6/Tue.  The threat appears to
   be somewhat more substantial on D6/Tue, and critical upgrades may be
   needed in later outlooks once details on the fire weather threat
   become clearer.

   Latest guidance suggests that the fire weather threat will lessen
   some from D7/Wed onward.

   ..Cook.. 01/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: January 19, 2017
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