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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 23, 2014
Updated: Thu Oct 23 21:25:03 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Oct 25, 2014 - Sun, Oct 26, 2014 D6Tue, Oct 28, 2014 - Wed, Oct 29, 2014
D4Sun, Oct 26, 2014 - Mon, Oct 27, 2014 D7Wed, Oct 29, 2014 - Thu, Oct 30, 2014
D5Mon, Oct 27, 2014 - Tue, Oct 28, 2014 D8Thu, Oct 30, 2014 - Fri, Oct 31, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232123

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0423 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 311200Z

   IN THE MID LEVELS...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE FROM THE E
   PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND AND ADVANCE EWD INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/STRONG SFC WINDS RELATED TO THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT
   PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES AND MAY COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY REDUCED
   SFC RH TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST FIRE-WEATHER RISK. THIS WOULD
   ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOLSTERS BOUNDARY-LAYER
   WARMING/DRYING IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   GREAT BASIN TO WY FOR D3/SAT AND D4/SUN. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
   AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   DRYING EXIST. FURTHERMORE...MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT...IN
   THE ABSENCE OF A WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
   WILL BE UNLIKELY. AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
   PAST MONTH MAY ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. AS
   SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
   TIME.

   MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH WARMING/DRYING SFC CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA INCLUDING
   THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES OCCASIONALLY ENHANCED SFC WINDS FOR D5/MON INTO
   D8/THU ACROSS THE SRN-CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHICH
   COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FIRE-WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER...WITH THE
   BULK OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE
   ABSENCE OF A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / A LACK OF STRONG SFC
   WINDS...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

   ..COHEN.. 10/23/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: October 23, 2014
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