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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 19, 2014
Updated: Fri Sep 19 19:30:03 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Sep 21, 2014 - Mon, Sep 22, 2014 D6Wed, Sep 24, 2014 - Thu, Sep 25, 2014
D4Mon, Sep 22, 2014 - Tue, Sep 23, 2014 D7Thu, Sep 25, 2014 - Fri, Sep 26, 2014
D5Tue, Sep 23, 2014 - Wed, Sep 24, 2014 D8Fri, Sep 26, 2014 - Sat, Sep 27, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 191928

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 271200Z

   FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
   PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN
   UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NWWD INTO
   THE NRN ROCKIES. ON D3/SUN...UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVER
   THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVES
   INTO THE PLAINS. ON D3/SUN AND D4/MON...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
   THROUGH THE CREST OF THIS RIDGE...FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES AND THEN EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. COMBINATION OF THIS
   UPPER LOW AND THE ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO
   DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT WWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST/NRN MEXICO. WET TSTMS
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS EXPECTED ON D3/SUN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
   THROUGH NV. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT SOME TSTM
   ACTIVITY OCCURS IN NE CA EARLY ON D3/SUN. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
   EWD ON D4/MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES THE PACIFIC NW WITH
   ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE D4/MON AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES.

   A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON
   D5/TUE. UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCLUDE BEFORE
   MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN CA THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW FROM D5/TUE
   THROUGH D7/THU. BEST OVERLAP OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
   BE ON D5/TUE AND D6/WED AND ELEVATED AREAS HAVE BEEN DELINEATED FROM
   NERN CA NEWD INTO E-CNTRL ORE WITH THIS FORECAST. REFINEMENT OF
   THESE AREAS IS LIKELY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS MODEL AND FUEL
   GUIDANCE CHANGES.

   ..MOSIER.. 09/19/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: September 19, 2014
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