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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 22, 2017
Updated: Wed Mar 22 21:20:03 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 100,354 1,990,883 El Paso, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
D5 37,628 606,540 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Big Spring, TX...
D3Fri, Mar 24, 2017 - Sat, Mar 25, 2017 D6Mon, Mar 27, 2017 - Tue, Mar 28, 2017
D4Sat, Mar 25, 2017 - Sun, Mar 26, 2017 D7Tue, Mar 28, 2017 - Wed, Mar 29, 2017
D5Sun, Mar 26, 2017 - Mon, Mar 27, 2017 D8Wed, Mar 29, 2017 - Thu, Mar 30, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222118

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0418 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   Upper pattern at the beginning of the period -- 12Z Friday -- is
   expected to feature a mature shortwave trough over the Plains,
   centered near the CO/KS border, and another shortwave trough off the
   Pacific Northwest coast. The Plains shortwave will gradually shift
   eastward across OK and KS on D3/Friday before turning more
   northeastward and moving through the middle MS valley on
   D4/Saturday. An additional shortwave trough will follow quickly in
   the wake first, moving into southern CA and across the Southwest on
   D4/Saturday and into the southern/central Plains on D5/Sunday. An
   active upper pattern is expected to persist into next week but model
   guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday with the ECMWF favoring a
   more progressive solution than the GFS. Ensemble solutions show
   increasing uncertainty beginning around D6/Monday as well. As a
   result, forecast confidence for next week is currently low.

   ...D3/Friday-D5/Sunday: Southern/Central Plains...
   Surface low associated with the previously mentioned shortwave
   trough is expected to track eastward near the KS/OK border during
   the day on D3/Friday while an associated dryline sweeps across the
   southern Plains. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated behind
   this dryline, helping to a support critical fire-weather threat from
   far west TX/southeast NM eastward/northeastward through the Low
   Rolling Plains and into southwest OK. In these areas, sustained
   westerly/southwesterly winds from 20 to 30 mph will align with
   afternoon RH values in from the low teens to low 20s.

   Fire-weather threat will persist into the weekend across the
   southern Plains with strong flow aloft ahead of the second shortwave
   trough (discussed above) spreading over the dry antecedent airmass.
   Critical fire-weather conditions are likely from far west TX through
   the Permian Basin on D5/Sunday as gusty winds, promoted by strong
   westerly flow aloft, deep boundary-layer mixing, and a tight surface
   pressure gradient, occur amidst above-average temperatures and
   afternoon RH values below 15-percent.

   ..Mosier.. 03/22/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: March 22, 2017
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