Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 30, 2014
Updated: Thu Oct 30 20:06:02 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting June 25, 2013, the SPC will issue Experimental Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Outlooks for Days 4 through 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Day 3-8 Fire Weather Categorical Outlooks (D3-8 FW Categorical). Scalloped areas (in Day3-8 graphics)/dashed areas (in individual day graphics) will indicate areas where the combination of numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, generally less than one-tenth inch of rain and dry fuels are forecast. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD), Public Information Notice (PNS), and provide feedback using this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=DTFWO. The experiment will end on July 30, 2013 and a decision will be made whether to proceed with testing, revise the test, or continue on the path to operational production.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Nov 01, 2014 - Sun, Nov 02, 2014 D6Tue, Nov 04, 2014 - Wed, Nov 05, 2014
D4Sun, Nov 02, 2014 - Mon, Nov 03, 2014 D7Wed, Nov 05, 2014 - Thu, Nov 06, 2014
D5Mon, Nov 03, 2014 - Tue, Nov 04, 2014 D8Thu, Nov 06, 2014 - Fri, Nov 07, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302004

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

   THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
   CONUS...COMPRISED OF DEEP TROUGHS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST
   COASTS...AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS MID-LEVEL PATTERN
   WILL FAVOR AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A SFC CYCLONE
   DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN / NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A STRONG SFC
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THIS AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL USHER IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN
   US...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES AND BREEZY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN FL ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPERATURES
   AND RELATIVELY MOIST FUEL CONDITIONS WILL TEMPER FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS THERE. AS SUCH...NO PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION IS NECESSARY
   AT THIS TIME. 

   WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
   WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
   WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS.
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS LOOK TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM DROPPING
   TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

   ...D6/TUE THROUGH D7/WED -- SRN CA...
   LATEST MED-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE RESULTANT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
   SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL
   RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED A
   40-PERCENT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED POTENTIAL ON D6/TUE AND
   D7/WED WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTORS AT
   THIS TIME ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS ON D3/SAT AND STILL
   SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC HIGH AND RESULTANT
   PRESSURE GRADIENT / OFFSHORE WIND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...LATER
   FORECASTS MAY INCREASE THE PROBABILITY IF IT APPEARS STRONGER
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MATERIALIZE.

   ..PICCA/ROGERS.. 10/30/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 30, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities