Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 18, 2017
Updated: Fri Aug 18 21:57:02 UTC 2017  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Aug 20, 2017 - Mon, Aug 21, 2017 D6Wed, Aug 23, 2017 - Thu, Aug 24, 2017
D4Mon, Aug 21, 2017 - Tue, Aug 22, 2017 D7Thu, Aug 24, 2017 - Fri, Aug 25, 2017
D5Tue, Aug 22, 2017 - Wed, Aug 23, 2017 D8Fri, Aug 25, 2017 - Sat, Aug 26, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 182155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   Quasi-zonal flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest
   into the northern High Plains late in the weekend and into early
   next week as closed cyclone meanders near the southern CA coast.
   Mid/upper-level heights begin to rise across much of the northwest
   CONUS midweek with ridging building into the area. Breakdown of the
   ridge is then forecast to occur late next week as troughing
   approaches the Pacific Northwest. 

   ...Day 3/Sunday: Northern Great Basin...
   Similar setup as Day 2/Saturday is expected Sunday with westerly
   flow promoting terrain-induced channeling of surface winds across
   southern ID -- particularly through the Snake River Valley -- in a
   region of low RH values and dry fuels. Have introduced 40%
   probabilities to account for the potential for at least
   locally-critical fire weather conditions. 

   ...Day 5/Tuesday through Day 6/Wednesday: Northern CA into Southern
   OR Tuesday expanding into parts of the Northern Rockies Wednesday...

   Aforementioned closed cyclone over southern CA will promote a steady
   northward advection of moisture through early next week with
   increasing chances/coverage of thunderstorms. Introduced 10% dry
   thunder probabilities for Day 5/Tuesday across northern CA into
   southern OR as potential for CG lightning flashes are forecast to
   work far enough northward to overlap areas of receptive fuels and
   low RH values. Dry thunder potential is forecast to expand farther
   northeastward Day 6/Wednesday as deep-layer moisture continues to
   stream northward. A larger 10% area was introduced for Wednesday
   across the Northwest to account for the increasing/expanding dry
   thunder threat.

   While threat for dry thunder may continue late in the week as trough
   continues to approach the area, predictability is too low to
   delineate an area with this outlook. Furthermore, wind/RH fire
   weather threats are also expected to develop late next week as
   trough crosses portions of the Northwest. Though, predictability is
   currently too low to include 40% probabilities for wind/RH.

   ..Elliott/Picca.. 08/18/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: August 18, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities