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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 5, 2016
Updated: Fri Feb 5 22:02:03 UTC 2016  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Feb 07, 2016 - Mon, Feb 08, 2016 D6Wed, Feb 10, 2016 - Thu, Feb 11, 2016
D4Mon, Feb 08, 2016 - Tue, Feb 09, 2016 D7Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - Fri, Feb 12, 2016
D5Tue, Feb 09, 2016 - Wed, Feb 10, 2016 D8Fri, Feb 12, 2016 - Sat, Feb 13, 2016
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052200

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

   VALID 071200Z - 131200Z

   UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY ON D3/SUN AND D4/MON AS AN
   UPPER LOW DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
   WHILE DEEPENING AND UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS W OF THE ROCKIES.
   TROUGHING WILL BE FURTHER DEEPENED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW...TRAVELING
   THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE
   MID VALLEY. THE RESULTING WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH UPPER
   PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
   SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH PACIFIC NW PROMOTE THE
   BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE. 

   ...SRN PLAINS: D3/SUN THROUGH D7/THU...
   A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A DRY AIRMASS AND NWLY/WLY
   FLOW PERSISTS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
   CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX ON D3/SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA
   WILL EXPAND ON D4/MON AS DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS COUPLE WITH
   BREEZY NW WINDS. NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY MITIGATE THE
   THREAT SOMEWHAT BUT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH
   TO DELINEATE A LARGE THREAT AREA FROM SW OK/NW TX SWD TO THE LWR RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY. 

   DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SHIFT WWD ON D5/TUE BUT DISPARITY WITHIN
   THE GUIDANCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS RESULTS IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
   TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ANTICIPATED CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON D6/WED WITH A
   MORE SWLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES IN ADDITION TO THE
   INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...SUPPORTING A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS ON D6/WED. AFTER D6/WED...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
   FRONTAL TIMING AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ARE
   TOO HIGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. 

   ...SRN CA: LATE D3/SUN AND D4/MON...
   PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
   LEAST THE D5/TUE WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO
   ONSHORE FLOW BY D6/WED. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS
   EXPECTED FROM D3/SUN NIGHT INTO D4/MON WITH THE LAX-TPH PRESSURE
   GRADIENT NEAR -12 TO -13 MB. SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FUELS EXIST
   BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND EXTENDED WARM AND DRY
   CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULT IN ENOUGH FIRE
   POTENTIAL TO DELINEATE A RISK AREA FOR D3/SUN AND D4/MON.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/05/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: February 05, 2016
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