| D3 | Tue, Nov 10, 2009 - Wed, Nov 11, 2009 | D6 | Fri, Nov 13, 2009 - Sat, Nov 14, 2009 |
| D4 | Wed, Nov 11, 2009 - Thu, Nov 12, 2009 | D7 | Sat, Nov 14, 2009 - Sun, Nov 15, 2009 |
| D5 | Thu, Nov 12, 2009 - Fri, Nov 13, 2009 | D8 | Sun, Nov 15, 2009 - Mon, Nov 16, 2009 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 080919 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009 VALID 101200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING HURRICANE IDA N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE BY DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE N OF THE CYCLONE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON DAY 3/4...AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MAY ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES OVER THE SERN STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. FARTHER W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE W COAST ON WED/DAY 4...AND THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY/DAY 6. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY/DAY 7. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND MREF INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MAY BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE PATTERN COULD FAVOR AN OFFSHORE WIND REGIME OVER SRN CA BY NEXT WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 11/08/2009 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT