Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 2, 2018

Updated: Fri Feb 2 21:00:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Feb 04, 2018 - Mon, Feb 05, 2018 D6Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018
D4Mon, Feb 05, 2018 - Tue, Feb 06, 2018 D7Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018
D5Tue, Feb 06, 2018 - Wed, Feb 07, 2018 D8Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022058

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2018

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   A series of shortwave troughs will help maintain broad upper
   troughing across the CONUS through at least the middle of next week.
   The first of these shortwaves is expected to traverse the central
   Plains and middle MS Valley on D3/Sunday. An attendant cold front
   will sweep across the Plains and lower/middle MS Valley with high
   pressure following in its wake. A more low-latitude shortwave trough
   is anticipated to drop through the western CONUS early next week
   before slowing its eastward progression at it approaches the
   southern Plains. 

   ...D4/Monday - D5/Tuesday: Southern High Plains...
   Increased flow aloft associated with the second shortwave trough as
   well as surface cyclogenesis across the southern Plains will likely
   result in strengthening surface winds across portions of the
   southern High Plains/southern Plains on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday.
   Confidence is increasing that a fire weather threat may be realized
   as these winds overlap warm and dry surface conditions and 40%
   delineations were outlined across portions of the southern High
   Plains as a result. 

   ...D4/Monday - D8/Friday: Southern CA...
   A prolonged period of warm and dry conditions is anticipated across
   southern CA as upper ridging gradually builds along the West Coast.
   Offshore gradient may increase enough on D6/Wednesday and
   D7/Thursday, supporting the potential for fire weather conditions.
   However, differences within the guidance regarding the strength of
   the gradient remain too high for much forecast confidence.

   ..Mosier.. 02/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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