Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 3, 2018

Updated: Sat Feb 3 21:29:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Feb 05, 2018 - Tue, Feb 06, 2018 D6Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018
D4Tue, Feb 06, 2018 - Wed, Feb 07, 2018 D7Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018
D5Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018 D8Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032127

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   The main fire weather concern during the Day 3-8 period will remain
   focused over the southern High Plains. A mean upper trough will
   persist over the central U.S. with several shortwave impulses
   rotating through larger-scale flow. The first impulse will result in
   weak lee trough development over the southern High Plains on Days
   3-4/Mon-Tue. Westerly deep layer flow also will increase and dry and
   breezy downslope flow will ensue. Elevated fire weather conditions
   are expected across parts of eastern NM into southwest TX on Monday.
   On Tuesday, a cold front will drop southeast across the southern
   Plains. Low RH values, and gusty winds ahead of and just behind this
   feature, will continue from far southeast AZ, southern NM into
   southwest TX. 

   A brief reprieve is expected on Wednesday before another shortwave
   begins digging over the Plains on Days 6-7/Thu-Fri. Another surface
   trough/lee low will develop as this occurs.  Dry and gusty winds
   will return to portions of eastern NM, western TX and perhaps into
   parts of western OK and at least elevated fire weather conditions
   appear possible at this time. Another cold front is then expected to
   track southeast across the region Friday night into Saturday.

   ..Leitman.. 02/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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