Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 4, 2018

Updated: Sun Feb 4 20:56:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Feb 06, 2018 - Wed, Feb 07, 2018 D6Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018
D4Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018 D7Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018
D5Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018 D8Sun, Feb 11, 2018 - Mon, Feb 12, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042054

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   Fire weather concerns will remain focused over parts of the southern
   High Plains and southern Rockies during the Day 3-8 period. A broad
   upper trough will persist over the central U.S. for much of the
   period. Several embedded shortwaves rotating through larger-scale
   flow will result in lee troughing and a tightening of the surface
   pressure gradient across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains
   region on Tuesday and again on Thursday. 

   On Tuesday, deep layer westerly flow will be strong and downslope
   winds will aid in warming/drying across parts of far southeast AZ,
   central and southern NM and southwest TX. As a result, elevated fire
   weather conditions are expected as RH values fall to around 15-20
   percent and sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts are
   possible. Some brief/spotty critical fire weather conditions can not
   be ruled out.

   On Thursday, only modest height falls are expected and deep layer
   flow will not be as strong. However, weak lee troughing and
   downslope winds should be adequate for some elevated conditions
   across parts of the southern High Plains from eastern NM into the TX
   Panhandle.

   Medium range guidance diverges quite a bit by Friday, with some
   elevated to critical fire weather potential possibly continuing
   across the southern High Plains, though confidence is too low for
   probabilities at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 02/04/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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