Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 5, 2018

Updated: Mon Feb 5 21:10:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Feb 07, 2018 - Thu, Feb 08, 2018 D6Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018
D4Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018 D7Sun, Feb 11, 2018 - Mon, Feb 12, 2018
D5Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018 D8Mon, Feb 12, 2018 - Tue, Feb 13, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052108

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   Medium range guidance continues to have run-to-run consistency
   issues beyond about day 4/Thursday. On day 3/Wednesday, light to
   moderate offshore winds are expected across the southern CA coastal
   ranges. This is mainly driven by a favorable surface pressure
   gradient across the region with strong high pressure over the Great
   Basin. However, upper level support will be lacking. Sustained
   east-northeast winds around 15-25 mph with higher gusts are expected
   in mainly higher elevations and typical wind-prone areas. RH values
   also will fall to around 10-20 percent. Unseasonably dry conditions
   persist across the region, leading to continued dry fuels and
   elevated fire weather conditions are expected. 

   On day 4/Thursday, weak downslope flow across the central and
   southern Rockies will lead to continued dry and breezy conditions
   across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Sustained
   west/southwest winds around 15 mph with RH values in the 15-25
   percent range are expected and elevated fire weather conditions are
   possible. 

   While some fire weather potential could develop day 5/Friday and
   later across portions of the southwestern states into the southern
   Plains, confidence is too low for probs at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 02/05/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT