Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 6, 2018

Updated: Tue Feb 6 20:38:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Feb 08, 2018 - Fri, Feb 09, 2018 D6Sun, Feb 11, 2018 - Mon, Feb 12, 2018
D4Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018 D7Mon, Feb 12, 2018 - Tue, Feb 13, 2018
D5Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018 D8Tue, Feb 13, 2018 - Wed, Feb 14, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062036

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   The large-scale pattern during the extended period is forecast to
   exhibit broad cyclonic flow over North America with multiple
   embedded shortwaves moving in from the Pacific Northwest.  In
   general, this upper-level pattern will reinforce surface high
   pressure over the northern and central plains.

   On Thursday (Day 3), lingering offshore winds and dry conditions
   across portions of southern California may result in elevated fire
   weather conditions early in the day.  However, a weakening surface
   pressure gradient and limited upper-level support will likely
   preclude the development of critical fire weather conditions.

   On Saturday (Day 5), a midlevel shortwave trough and associated wind
   speed maximum is forecast to move into the Southwest from the Great
   Basin.  This will likely lead to windy surface conditions across
   much of Arizona and New Mexico.  A 40% area has been added across
   southern Arizona and New Mexico, where relative humidity values are
   also expected to be near critical levels.

   The multi-model/ensemble spread becomes large beyond Saturday (Day
   5), so confidence is low in the possibility of critical fire weather
   conditions.  Some fire weather threat may develop on Sunday (Day 6)
   across southern California as surface high pressure in the central
   Great Basin favors offshore flow, but there is too much uncertainty
   in the details to highlight an area at this time.

   ..Jirak.. 02/06/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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