Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 7, 2018

Updated: Wed Feb 7 21:56:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Feb 09, 2018 - Sat, Feb 10, 2018 D6Mon, Feb 12, 2018 - Tue, Feb 13, 2018
D4Sat, Feb 10, 2018 - Sun, Feb 11, 2018 D7Tue, Feb 13, 2018 - Wed, Feb 14, 2018
D5Sun, Feb 11, 2018 - Mon, Feb 12, 2018 D8Wed, Feb 14, 2018 - Thu, Feb 15, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072154

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   An upper trough will move southeastward across the Great Basin to
   the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Another
   upper trough should develop from the eastern Pacific to the vicinity
   of the West Coast on Day 4/Sunday. Thereafter, medium-range guidance
   continues to struggle with the evolution of this second upper trough
   over the western CONUS. Regardless, it does appear that some form of
   upper troughing should persist across the western/central CONUS
   through much of the extended forecast period.

   ...Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday: Portions of the Southern High
   Plains into the Southwest...
   A surface low should develop across parts of the central/southern
   High Plains on Day 3/Friday, and the pressure gradient across
   eastern NM is likewise forecast to increase. Enhanced westerly
   mid-level winds should remain displaced to the north of this region,
   but some locally strong/gusty downslope winds may develop across
   part of east-central NM by Friday afternoon. The overlap of these
   winds with modestly reduced RH values currently appear too marginal
   to justify any probabilities for critical fire weather conditions,
   although elevated conditions may occur.

   A greater likelihood for critical conditions is apparent on Day
   4/Saturday across much of central/southern NM into parts of southern
   AZ and far west TX. Mid-level westerly winds should strengthen
   through the afternoon as the lead shortwave trough described above
   approaches this region. There are still some timing differences in
   the deterministic guidance with this upper trough, which affects the
   eastern extent of the potential for strong/gusty downslope winds and
   critically lowered RH values across the southern High Plains. For
   now, have not expanded the 40%/marginal area eastward to include
   more of eastern NM into west TX, but did expand this area northward
   into central NM where better potential exists in critical
   conditions. A 70%/critical area may be needed for some part of this
   region in a future update if model agreement increases.

   ...Day 5/Sunday: Portions of Southern CA...
   A brief period of gusty offshore winds may occur across parts of
   southern CA around Day 5/Sunday morning. The surface pressure
   gradient should increase over this region based off the latest
   multi-model consensus, but both the longevity and strength of the
   offshore winds remain in question. Have therefore not included any
   portion of southern CA in a 40%/marginal area at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 02/07/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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