Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 9, 2018

Updated: Fri Feb 9 20:40:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 9, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 9, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 9, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 9, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 9, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 9, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 9, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 5,850 6,911,440 Santa Ana, CA...Riverside, CA...Glendale, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Irvine, CA...
D3Sun, Feb 11, 2018 - Mon, Feb 12, 2018 D6Wed, Feb 14, 2018 - Thu, Feb 15, 2018
D4Mon, Feb 12, 2018 - Tue, Feb 13, 2018 D7Thu, Feb 15, 2018 - Fri, Feb 16, 2018
D5Tue, Feb 13, 2018 - Wed, Feb 14, 2018 D8Fri, Feb 16, 2018 - Sat, Feb 17, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092038

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2018

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   Moderate Santa Ana winds will be ongoing Day 3/Sunday morning and
   persist into the afternoon before weakening. Critical fire weather
   conditions are expected, mainly in the higher elevations of the
   coastal ranges. RH values generally in the 10-15 percent range with
   sustained northeast winds around 20-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph are
   expected across the critical area. Surrounding the critical area, a
   broader area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
   the great Los Angeles-San Diego region with RH values from 10-20
   percent and sustained northeast winds around 15-25 mph. By Sunday
   evening, the surface pressure gradient weakens and deep layer flow
   becomes more westerly and the fire weather threat will diminish. 

   The remainder of the Day 3-8 period will see a split flow regime as
   an upper low cuts off over the western U.S. and tracks westward off
   the CA coast. This will bring a mean upper trough over the northern
   tier of the U.S. with weak ridging to zonal flow across the southern
   U.S. Enhanced westerly deep layer flow will overspread the southern
   Rockies and periods of lee troughing could result in some elevated
   fire weather potential across parts of the southern High Plains
   beginning around the middle of next week. However, confidence is too
   low to include any areas at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 02/09/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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