Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Apr 30, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 30 16:00:04 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170430 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170430 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 7,906 3,737 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
   FNUS21 KWNS 301555

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

   Valid 301700Z - 011200Z


   A critical area was introduced in the Transpecos region of Texas for
   this outlook.  Here, models/high-res guidance support 20-25 mph
   westerly surface flow developing for sufficient duration this
   afternoon to justify a critical delineation as temperatures rise
   into the 70s during peak heating hours.  Critical RH will also
   develop in the region, with many areas exhibiting single-digit RH
   values by early afternoon.

   Elsewhere, stronger flow will develop in the afternoon into central
   New Mexico, which may elevate fire weather conditions despite
   relatively cool surface temperatures (50s to mid 60s F) and only
   15-25% RH values.  The previous elevated delineation has been
   altered some to include more of central New Mexico as a result of
   the latest guidance.

   Elsewhere, the previous forecast is on track with minimal changes
   needed.  See the previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 04/30/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0255 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

   An upper low centered over the TX/OK Panhandles early this morning
   will move northeastward across the central/southern Plains today,
   reaching the upper MS Valley and Upper Midwest by the end of the
   period. A cyclonically curved belt of enhanced mid-level winds will
   remain across parts of the Southwest into the southern Plains
   through this evening, before gradually weakening through early
   Monday morning across this region. At the surface, a low over KS/OK
   will develop northeastward in a similar fashion to the upper low
   through the period. A dry, post-frontal airmass will reside across
   the Southwest and southern Plains.

   ...Portions of Southeastern AZ into Southern NM and South TX...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated today from portions
   of southeastern AZ into southern NM and continuing into south TX.
   Across this region, sustained northwesterly post-frontal winds
   should increase into the 15-20 mph range as diurnal mixing of the
   boundary layer allows for efficient downward transfer of enhanced
   mid-level winds to the surface. Although temperatures will generally
   not be overly warm given the post-frontal airmass, diurnal heating
   and some downslope warming/drying with low-level trajectories off
   higher terrain in Mexico and NM should allow RH values to fall into
   the 7-15% range for a few hours this afternoon from southeastern AZ
   into southern NM and far west TX (roughly the Big Bend region). From
   the middle Rio Grande Valley southeastward into deep south TX, RH
   values should generally fall into the 15-25% range this afternoon.
   Sustained winds above 20 mph are expected on just a localized basis
   across parts of far west TX, which precludes the introduction of a
   critical area.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Related Fire Weather Web Links
Top/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: April 30, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities