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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Feb 11, 2016 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 11 16:17:02 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160211 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160211 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111612

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS...
   ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX IS VERY DRY...AS NOTED BY
   THE 12Z FWD AND BRO SOUNDINGS...WHICH REPORTED PW VALUES OF 0.28 AND
   0.47 INCH...RESPECTIVELY /BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SPC
   SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/. AS A RESULT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL
   BELOW 20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S /10-15 DEGREES
   ABOVE AVERAGE/. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK /BELOW/...
   THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK
   WAS A SLIGHT NWD EXPANSION TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RH
   VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR
   PRECLUDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/11/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
   DOMINATE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY...REINFORCED AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY
   A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   ...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES NORTH OF A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE.  A
   WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...SETTING UP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA THAT WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS PRIMARILY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS.  ELSEWHERE...
   SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN A WARM/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
   WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA TODAY.

   ...SOUTH TEXAS...
   THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
   THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   SURROUNDING THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT 10-15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID
   AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK HEATING.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE 79-85F RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING...AND FUELS
   WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION OWING AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO A
   DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST MONTH.  RH VALUES WILL
   APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
   IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DELINEATION WILL BE RETAINED FOR THIS
   FORECAST.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: February 11, 2016
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