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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Apr 18, 2015 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 18 16:39:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150418 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150418 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 28,023 871,487 Las Cruces, NM...Socorro, TX...Carlsbad, NM...Deming, NM...Sunland Park, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181637

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   VALID 181700Z - 191200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
   NORTHERN TRANS PECOS...

   LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
   HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA OVER NEW ENGLAND.

   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH EAST UNITED
   STATES...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO
   THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY
   LIGHT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   AND BEHIND AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
   RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WARRANTS
   INCLUSION IN AN ELEVATED AREA...AND THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
   BEEN MADE.

   ELSEWHERE...THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE READ THE
   DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INSIGHTS.

   ..MARSH.. 04/18/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0349 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EWD FROM CO INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION
   LATE IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   PROGRESS E/SEWD FROM ONTARIO THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE THE
   ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

   THE RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ATTENDANT DRY LINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH.
   ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
   LATER IN THE DAY...WITH RIDGING PROGRESSING FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
   ONTARIO TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. 

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN NM...SERN AZ...WRN TX...
   WITH THE CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW REMAINING TO THE
   NORTH OF THE REGION...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
   REMAIN SITUATED OVER FAR SRN NM AND THE SURROUNDING AREA. WITH THE
   ONSET OF DEEP DIURNAL MIXING...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20
   MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ AND RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 10-15
   PERCENT /ENHANCED IN TERRAIN-FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS/. WHILE THE
   REGION HAS EXPERIENCED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK...THE LATEST
   FINE-FUEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE FOR FIRE
   SPREAD. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED...WITH
   THE PREVIOUS ELEVATED DELINEATION MAINTAINED WITH ONLY MINOR
   ADJUSTMENTS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...
   WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AN ATTENDANT SFC WAVE AND COLD
   FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. W/SWLY FLOW AND
   RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
   TO PROMOTE A WELL-MIXED BL DURING THE DAY. IN RESPONSE...RH VALUES
   WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REGION...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 15-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
   WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE
   FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AS IT LOOKS TO BE LATER IN THE DAY...COOLING
   TEMPS WILL FAVOR RISING RH LEVELS BY THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WHILE
   LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IN THE
   NECESSARY DURATION OF SUCH CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW FOR A CRITICAL
   DELINEATION. THEREFORE...THE PREVIOUS ELEVATED AREA WAS MAINTAINED
   WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.

   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN WI...
   LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...AS ELY
   WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
   HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
   PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM THE DRY
   RIDGE...RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING THE
   DAY...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS REACH AROUND 10-15 MPH. DRY FUELS WILL
   SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD AS WELL. HOWEVER...DUE TO
   THE MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...A DELINEATION WILL NOT BE
   INTRODUCED WITH THIS FORECAST. ONE MAY BE REQUIRED WITH THE NEXT
   UPDATE THOUGH...IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOWER RH VALUES/STRONGER
   WINDS.

   ...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...
   CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH/REACH ELEVATED LEVELS AS A COLD
   FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
   STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH...RH VALUES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE
   20-25 PERCENT RANGE...AS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /GENERALLY
   IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S/. THEREFORE...NO DELINEATION HAS BEEN
   INTRODUCED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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