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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Aug 4, 2015 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 4 15:12:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150804 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150804 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 041507

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   VALID 041700Z - 051200Z

   ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED WIND/RH AREA TO EXTEND
   THE AREA OF CONCERN FURTHER EAST TO THE CENTRAL WA/ID BORDER BASED
   ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
   OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. SEE
   DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/04/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0341 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY THIS MORNING...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CROSSING PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES -- TO THE S OF A
   RIDGE EXTENDING NWD OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD...WHILE AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER BRITISH
   COLUMBIA DEVELOPS INTO THE NWRN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...A MID-LEVEL
   DISTURBANCE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA
   WILL MOVE ONSHORE TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. A SEPARATE...MORE SUBTLE
   IMPULSE LIES BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
   PACIFIC DISTURBANCE -- PRESENTLY OVER ORE -- AND WILL CONTINUE
   TRACKING ENEWD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL
   INFLUENCE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN CONUS.
   MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

   ...PORTIONS OF NRN CA/NRN NV NEWD INTO WRN MT...
   WHILE THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PRESENTLY CROSSING THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...REINFORCING ASCENT
   OFFERED BY BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIGRATORY OREGON IMPULSE AND THE
   PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY ENHANCED TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS WILL ALSO
   YIELD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AMIDST MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE. LIFT AHEAD OF THE
   PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN CA...NRN NV...AND FAR
   NWRN UT INTO PARTS OF SRN ORE/SRN ID.

   EARLY-MORNING GPS DATA AND MONDAY-EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
   HIGHLIGHT PW VALUES GENERALLY FROM 0.60 TO 0.90 INCH...WHICH ARE
   FORECAST TO EXHIBIT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE THROUGH THE D1/TUE PERIOD.
   FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF 20-40 MPH OF FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD
   LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE MODEST STORM MOTIONS TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION
   AMOUNTS DEPOSITED BY STORMS...WHILE DIURNAL SFC HEATING FACILITATES
   DEEP MIXING AND SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION.

   A MIX OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE...YIELDING A
   POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY
   TO VERY DRY FUELS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN
   AREAS OF RELATIVELY LOWER PW...DRY-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO REACH SCATTERED LEVELS...THOUGH ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED
   IGNITIONS WILL EXIST ON THE PERIPHERY OF RAIN CORES. GUSTY/ERRATIC
   OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...POTENTIALLY
   INFLUENCING ANY ONGOING AND/OR NEW FIRES. SIMILAR LIGHTNING-INDUCED
   IGNITION POTENTIAL MAY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
   DESPITE HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT...IGNITION
   POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FUEL DRYNESS.

   ...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN WA INTO N-CNTRL ORE EWD INTO NRN ID
   PANHANDLE/NWRN MT...
   MODEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS
   AROUND 10-20 MPH...WITH DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING
   SUPPORTING MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE 20S. THE
   STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN WA
   INTO N-CNTRL ORE WHERE ELEVATED DESIGNATION IS IN EFFECT...AND
   BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
   ANY MORE THAN SHORT-DURATION/LOCALIZED/MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   IS TOO LIMITED FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION WITHOUT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW. RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   REGION OUTSIDE OF THE ELEVATED AREA PRECLUDING LARGER AREAL EXTENT
   OF THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHT...THOUGH MARGINAL/BRIEF/SPOTTY ELEVATED
   FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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