ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250905

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN
   NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
   NEVADA...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
   THROUGH THE FLOW SURROUNDING THE LARGE...STATIONARY PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST UPPER LOW. TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW...SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

   ...NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHERN
   UTAH...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...COUPLED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE /PW VALUES AT
   OR BELOW 0.25 INCHES/...WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING
   INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEST LOW-TO-MID
   LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 700 MB/ AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
   RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 MPH YIELDING AT
   LEAST LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   MODEL/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF DECREASING THE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL
   FLOW...SURFACE WINDS MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY LESS THAN FORECAST.
   IF OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY SUPPORT THIS DECREASED SURFACE WIND
   SCENARIO..THE CRITICAL RISK MAY NEED TO BE DOWNGRADED IN THE DAY 1
   UPDATE.

   ...AREAS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH...SURROUNDING THE
   CRITICAL AREA...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREAS
   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL RISK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ONCE
   AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CRITICALLY LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
   /RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/...AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
   CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH /RH IN THE TEENS/. WIND SPEEDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH EXCEEDING CRITICAL THRESHOLD /20 MPH/ AT
   TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
   EXCEEDING 20 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IS
   APPEARS THAT JOINT OCCURRENCE OF CRITICALLY LOW RH AND CRITICALLY
   HIGH WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING FOR THE REQUISITE 3 HRS APPEARS
   SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A CRITICAL DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED.

   ...MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
   WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
   FAVORED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AREAS. PW VALUES HERE ARE EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN BELOW 0.75 INCHES. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEEP INVERTED-VEE
   SOUNDINGS WILL TEND TO PREVENT MOST PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
   GROUND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. GIVEN THE WIDELY
   SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION...A CRITICAL IS NOT FELT TO BE
   NECESSARY. SHOULD LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION THAN
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A DRY THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..MARSH.. 05/25/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)