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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Feb 5, 2016 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 5 18:37:03 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160205 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160205 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051832

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SEWD FROM E
   TX INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP
   MIXING IS STILL EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS. CURRENT
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
   APPROACHING 30 MPH. DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
   WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING...WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AND MIN RH VALUES
   FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
   RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRECLUDED BY THE
   SHORT DURATION OF THE OVERLAPPING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW
   CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH. 

   ...SRN CA...
   LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
   OFFSHORE GRADIENT PERSISTS...WITH CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING
   EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
   DIURNALLY WEAKEN...MINIMIZING THE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE GUSTY OFFSHORE
   WINDS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. THIS MINIMAL OVERLAP AND GENERALLY
   UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH
   ONLY LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/05/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED...YET PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY.  A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL
   MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE GULF STREAM LATE
   IN THE PERIOD.  AN UPSTREAM WAVE WILL ALSO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING
   EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  RIDGING
   WILL BECOME EVEN FURTHER ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND LOWER
   COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE RESULTING IN CONTINUED OFFSHORE
   FLOW ATOP RELATIVELY MOIST FUELS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE
   PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FOSTER DRY
   NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.  THE MARGINAL
   MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY AREAL
   DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ELSEWHERE...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY
   LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: February 05, 2016
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