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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Aug 28, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 28 19:03:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150828 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150828 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 30,542 1,257,572 Spokane, WA...Kennewick, WA...Richland, WA...Pasco, WA...Lewiston, ID...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281858

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN WA AND THE ID
   PANHANDLE...

   THE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED SWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL NV AND WRN UT...WHERE THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONG WINDS COMBINING WITH RH AROUND 15-20
   PERCENT AMIDST DRY FUELS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
   THE ONGOING FORECAST. A CRITICAL AREA CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
   WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE. EXPANSION OF THIS CRITICAL AREA...AND/OR
   ADDITIONAL CRITICAL AREAS...MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
   SPATIOTEMPORAL ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS WITH CRITICALLY
   LOW RH ON ANY MORE THAN A SHORT-DURATION...LOCALIZED BASIS AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 08/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0452 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
   BRITISH COLUMBIA ON D2/SAT. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
   OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...NRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES...AND NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...NRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES...AND NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   AS STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50-75 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS LIKEWISE
   FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OVER THIS AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
   FROM SLY IN THE MORNING TO SWLY/WLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES
   WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
   POSSIBLE. RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY DECREASE ONLY MARGINALLY WITH
   FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...
   AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE FORECAST OFFICE IN SPOKANE...THE
   EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE WINDS COMBINED WITH ONGOING FIRES IN ERN WA
   STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE INCLUSION A CRITICAL AREA IS PRUDENT FOR
   PORTIONS OF ERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE...EVEN THOUGH CRITICAL RH
   THRESHOLDS MAY NOT BE STRICTLY MET.

   A MUCH LARGER ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED FOR MOST OF THE
   REMAINDER INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN...NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AND NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WILL
   INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ACROSS THESE REGIONS...FORECAST WIND
   SPEEDS AND/OR RH VALUES DO NOT CURRENTLY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
   ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL
   GUIDANCE...ADDITIONAL CRITICAL AREAS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES.

   FINALLY...AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
   PORTIONS OF FAR NERN NV...NWRN UT...ID...FAR NWRN WY...AND MUCH OF
   WRN/CNTRL MT. ACROSS THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND TOPOGRAPHY SHOULD ENCOURAGE
   ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DRY...WITH
   PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE. FAST
   STORM MOTIONS AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD LIMIT WETTING RAINFALL
   AMOUNTS...AND ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD ENCOURAGE NEW FIRE STARTS
   IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: August 28, 2015
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