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Feb 23, 2017 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 23 19:35:03 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170223 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170223 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 104,372 1,518,980 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Roswell, NM...
   FNUS22 KWNS 231930

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous
   outlook. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
   again on Friday across portions of the southern Plains. The critical
   area has been modified slightly based on latest model guidance to
   extend further north into southwestern portions of the TX Panhandle
   as well as further south toward the Rio Grande River. A very dry
   airmass with PW values around 0.10 inches will be in place and RH
   values will bottom out in the single digits to 13 percent. While
   temperatures will be cooler than on Thursday, deep boundary layer
   mixing will allow for strong, gusty northwest winds to persist in
   this dry environment. Otherwise, no other major changes were made.

   ..Leitman.. 02/23/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

   A deep cyclone will track from portions of the Central States to the
   Great Lakes region, with an associated cold front advancing
   eastward/southeastward across portions of the South-Central and
   Southeastern States. An influx of drier air into parts of the
   South-Central States behind the front, amidst enhanced winds, will
   result in fire-weather potential across portions of the southern
   Great Plains and westward across southern NM.

   ...Portions of the southern Great Plains and westward across
   southern NM...
   Diurnal heating and areas of downslope-flow-enhanced warming are
   forecast to offset modest cold advection behind the cold front --
   supporting diurnal RH reductions. The influx of drier post-frontal
   air will also support these RH reductions. Meanwhile, enhanced
   low/midlevel flow trailing to the west-southwest of the deeper
   cyclone will support enhanced surface winds, as vertical mixing
   strengthens during the afternoon.

   Within the Critical area, westerly to northwesterly winds of 20-25
   mph are forecast to combine with RH around 9-15 percent amidst dry
   fuels in support of critical fire-weather conditions.

   Across the surrounding Elevated area -- over a large part of TX and
   southern OK, extending into parts of eastern/southern NM -- westerly
   to northerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. These winds are
   forecast to combine with RH from the lower/middle teens to the
   middle 20s (lowest readings west and south, highest readings
   northeast). While briefly critical fire-weather conditions could
   occur -- especially across parts of the middle/lower Rio Grande
   Valley region -- the general tendency for stronger flow aloft to
   advance east of the lower RH should minimize the critical
   fire-weather risk.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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