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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
May 22, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri May 22 08:19:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150522 0700Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150522 0700Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220814

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   D2/SAT PERIOD WILL ADVANCE EWD TO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL LIKEWISE MOVE EWD TO
   THE MS VALLEY REGION BY SAT EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   MAINE AND ADJACENT CANADIAN PROVINCES MOVES OFFSHORE BY SAT
   AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
   E-CNTRL U.S. SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHILE
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AN AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
   DEEPEN OVER ERN CO BY SAT EVENING...WHILE A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
   ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW STRETCHES SWD ACROSS ERN NM. FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS ACROSS THE CONUS ON D2/SAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO
   PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX BEHIND THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH
   A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE SAT AFTERNOON FOR 
   PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM/FAR W TX. DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO THE SFC. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF
   15-20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WILL COMBINE
   WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE TO ELEVATE FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST
   WINDS AND MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A
   CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WHILE ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE MET ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM SAT
   AFTERNOON...PRIOR RAINFALL HAS RENDERED FUELS UNRECEPTIVE FOR THIS
   REGION...AND THEREFORE THE ELEVATED AREA DOES NOT INCLUDE ERN NM.

   ...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
   AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR D2/SAT ACROSS A PORTION OF
   NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING SRN VT/NH...MUCH OF MA...AND FAR NRN CT
   WHERE A RELATIVE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF
   DRY FINE FUELS. BEHIND AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE...A DRY LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. ON D2/SAT. AN
   ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE WLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE
   ELEVATED AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS SAT AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
   SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
   60S...DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS BELOW 30 PERCENT
   FOR A FEW HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF STRONGER EXPECTED SFC WINDS
   PRECLUDES A CRITICAL DELINEATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.

   ..GLEASON.. 05/22/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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