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Mesoscale Discussion 59
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0059
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle into adjacent
   southeast Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071704Z - 071900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A relative concentration of marginal severe risk is
   evident over the discussion area, for the next 1-2 hours.  WW not
   required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a small zone of
   still-backed (southerly) winds in combination with relatively
   maximized (mid to upper 60s) dewpoints, centered over portions of
   the Florida panhandle.  This area of relatively greater dewpoints is
   resulting in a bulls-eye of surface-based CAPE (500 to 1000 J/kg),
   and slightly enhanced deep-layer shear as a result of the backed
   surface winds.

   While outflow continues to advance southward across southeast
   Alabama toward the Florida Panhandle, which will eventually
   contaminate the slightly more-favorable environment residing over
   the discussion area, a short-term window continued potential for a
   few stronger/rotating storms -- and associated severe risk -- is
   evident.  Overall risk still remains low/isolated, and as such WW
   issuance will not be required.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 02/07/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30338708 30638707 31308603 31548543 31638477 30978454
               30528513 30328614 30338708 

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Page last modified: February 07, 2018
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