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Mesoscale Discussion 3
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0313 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern NC...Southeast VA

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 032113Z - 040115Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy wintry mix will develop across eastern North
   Carolina over the next few hours.  Heavy snow will develop later
   this evening across northeast North Carolina into southeast
   Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Surface low is deepening well off the FL coast and this
   system will lift north-northeast during the evening hours remaining
   east of the Outer Banks region through 12z. Latest radar data
   suggests a secondary band of heavier precip is beginning to form off
   the NC coast in response to large-scale forcing for ascent beginning
   to maximize in this region. Over the next few hours there should be
   a marked increase in precipitation over eastern NC, in line with
   latest high-res model guidance and a heavy wintry mix is expected to
   develop from near ILM to ECG. 18z sounding from MHX depicts a
   substantial warm nose near 900mb and this layer will not cool
   appreciably until after 02-03z. For this reason, freezing rain/ice
   pellets can be expected in this zone through 04z. However,
   precipitation should fall mostly as snow north of GSB to ECG. Snow
   rates will increase through the evening hours with rates exceeding
   1" and possibly approaching 2" per hour at times.

   ..Darrow.. 01/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34797867 36897682 36907573 36247586 35477684 34797733
               33867804 34797867 

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