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Mesoscale Discussion 36
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0036
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0935 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas across Arkansas and into far
   southern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

   Valid 220335Z - 220530Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of a couple tornadoes as well as damaging winds
   will likely spread east of the existing watch, and a new watch may
   be needed by 5Z.

   DISCUSSION...A southwest-northeast oriented zone of thunderstorms
   has become more productive over the past few hours, as wind fields
   continue to increase. Only modest levels of instability exists, but
   low-level flow is strong. A few storms have shown signs of
   possible/brief tornadoes with little or no lightning, suggesting
   minimal instability is needed.

   Sporadic severe storms currently exist from northeast TX across
   western AR. Additional storms may develop southward into
   east-central TX and northwest LA, with shear favoring supercells and
   perhaps a tornado or two. 

   As the cold front reaches the existing batch of storms, they will
   likely merge into a line and accelerate eastward. Models suggest
   that some threat will likely persist across central AR, and perhaps
   far southern MO as warm advection creates minimal instability there.
   Overall, the threat is expected to weaken as it approaches the MS
   river late tonight.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31889345 31709423 31829504 32159540 32499564 32979568
               34529495 36019416 37089296 37269174 36979108 36119105
               34339184 32999249 32509268 31889345 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2018
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