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Mesoscale Discussion 59
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CST THU FEB 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WRN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 050852Z - 051045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG-THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXIST WITH
   CONVECTION NEARING THE COAST OF THE WRN FL PENINSULA IN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH
   EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS ADVANCING EWD TOWARD THE COAST. THE MOST
   ROBUST CONVECTION IS APPROACHING LEE COUNTY...AND HAS OCCASIONALLY
   EXHIBITED LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH INFLECTION-POINT
   MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CIRCULATIONS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS MOVING ONSHORE
   ALONG THE SARASOTA-COUNTY COAST. POLEWARD MOISTURE-FLUXES PRECEDING
   A MIDDLE-GULF FRONTAL WAVE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY -- ALBEIT
   VERY LIMITED AS REFLECTED BY THE 00Z TAMPA-BAY AREA RAOB -- FOR
   STRONG STORMS TO BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
   AROUND 50 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE TBW VWP WITH
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. A DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE
   DETRIMENTAL FOR STABLE-LAYER PENETRATION BY DOWNDRAFTS IN SUPPORT OF
   STRONG-WIND GUSTS. THIS IS CORROBORATED WITH ONLY WEAK WINDS BEING
   OBSERVED AS WEAKLY BOWING CONVECTION PASSED THROUGH THE TAMPA-BAY
   AREA EARLIER...SUGGESTING THAT LIFTED PARCELS COULD BE ELEVATED
   ABOVE THE SURFACE.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26438205 26598221 26828234 26988231 26888211 26548183
               26248171 26228186 26438205 

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Page last modified: February 05, 2015
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