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Mesoscale Discussion 60
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0958 AM CST MON FEB 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN PA/NRN AND CENTRAL NJ/LONG ISLAND INCLUDING
   NYC METRO AREA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 031558Z - 031900Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP EWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH 18Z
   IN A 30-45 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM 25 N KPHL THROUGH
   CENTRAL/NRN NJ AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND /INCLUDING THE NYC METRO/ TO
   INVOF KBID.  AFTER 18Z...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE...BUT RATES ARE
   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
   FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER
   HOUR SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   BE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
   04/00Z.  MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COASTAL LOW
   BEGINNING TO FORM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/SRN DELMARVA...WHERE
   PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE LAST
   FEW HOURS...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS SURFACE
   LOW WILL TRACK EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ENEWD INTO THE
   ATLANTIC...RANGING FROM 150 TO 160 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
   SRN EXTENT OF CAPE COD...RESPECTIVELY.  

   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 13-15Z INDICATED SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY AT
   1 INCH PER HOUR FROM KABE...POTTSTOWN PA /KPTW/...KTTN TO THE NYC
   METRO.  AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FORM THIS MORNING AND TRACK
   EWD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
   TO ELY...N OF THE LOW TRACK OVER ERN LONG ISLAND TO KACK.  THIS WILL
   SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE OCEAN...WITH FURTHER
   MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS REGION PER A SLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO
   LONG ISLAND.  THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH  DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG
   THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROVE
   SUPPORTIVE OF THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..PETERS.. 02/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...

   LAT...LON   40367573 40727465 41207271 41267166 41057149 40527307
               40147399 40027501 40367573 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2014
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