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Mesoscale Discussion 61
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL CA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090010Z - 090145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR
   HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. SVR THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW TO
   MERIT A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A CONVERGENCE
   ZONE...ROUGHLY FROM EL DORADO COUNTY SWD INTO MERCED COUNTY.
   LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH THESE STORMS HAS
   INCREASED BUT STORMS REMAIN LOW-TOPPED WITH ECHO TOPS UNDER 30 KFT.
   ADDITIONALLY...MODEST STORM ROTATION WAS NOTED IN THE STORM MOVING
   FROM STANISLAUS COUNTY INTO TUOLUMNE COUNTY.  WHILE STORMS MAY
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OVERALL STORM STRENGTH AND
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THEREAFTER AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES
   AND THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER NW. 

   AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL...AND EVEN A BRIEF
   TORNADO...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MEANTIME BUT ANTICIPATED ISOLATED
   SVR COVERAGE MAKES A WW UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TRENDS ACROSS THE
   REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 02/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

   LAT...LON   37532021 37332035 37262061 37282084 37372102 37712110
               38162116 38492105 38722073 38592058 38242042 37532021 

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Page last modified: February 09, 2015
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