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Mesoscale Discussion 62
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270936Z - 271130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD GRADUALLY
   MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LOWER
   KEYS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR
   CHARACTERISTICS AROUND 30-50 MILES OFF THE PENINSULA...CONTINUE TO
   GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST OF FAR SOUTHWEST FL IN VICINITY OF
   MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AS OF 415 AM EST/0915Z. THESE STORMS ARE
   OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT DELINEATES A
   MORE MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIR MASS WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KEY WEST AND
   MIAMI...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY ARE MAXIMIZED
   IN THIS NEAR-COASTAL PART OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. RECENT
   TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER INFRARED SATELLITE
   IMAGERY ALONG WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AS
   CONVECTION APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. EVEN WITH THESE
   RECENT TRENDS...GIVEN CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING INLAND...A FEW
   STRONGER STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AMID A STRONGLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR
   WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26538203 26868130 26528072 26158039 25338060 24988091
               24628197 25498185 25688170 26538203 

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Page last modified: January 27, 2016
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