Mesoscale Discussion 0062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017
Areas affected...From central and southern Arkansas toward the
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 162002Z - 162200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The area from central AR into northern LA and northeast TX
is being monitored for possible storm development, and a threat of
an isolated tornado this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front now into southern
AR with temperatures and dewpoints rising into the mid 70s and 60s
respectively. Just to the west, a slow-moving cold front was
situated from northeast TX into western AR, with deepening showers
and a few lightning strikes along it as of 20Z.
Area VWPs show strong low-level shear especially along the warm
front with 0-3 srh in excess of 300 m2/s2. This is overlapping with
the instability axis of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE near the AR/LA border.
The upper trough will continue to pull away from the area, with some
veering of the low-level winds. However, through afternoon, there
may be a window where storms can become strong enough to take
advantage of the better shear, with a weak tornado possible. At this
time, a watch is not expected to be issued unless storm trends
increase beyond isolated.
LAT...LON 32499461 33909370 34839298 35009235 34809188 34299138
33849123 33309137 32729182 32369235 32189295 32109339