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Mesoscale Discussion 63
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271221Z - 271445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
   TORNADO WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT
   INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FL PENINSULA.
   DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER OFFSHORE STORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER THE PAST
   60-90 MINUTES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
   COLLIER COUNTY AND NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LIGHTNING...A REINTENSIFICATION TREND HAS OCCURRED
   AS THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND WITH MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF
   TRANSIENT/MODEST LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...WITH A TRANSITIONAL
   HIGH-PRECIP SUPERCELL/BOW-TYPE MODE AS OF 7 AM EST/12Z. 

   STEADY LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTINUES TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH UPPER 60S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/VERO BEACH VICINITIES
   AS OF 12Z. IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR/SRH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL PENINSULA IN VICINITY OF A SUBTLE WARM
   FRONT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA EARLY THIS
   MORNING...WITH 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH RECENTLY NOTED IN THE
   MELBOURNE WSR-88D VWP. WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 12Z MIAMI OBSERVED
   SOUNDING SUGGEST APPROXIMATELY 175-250 M2/S2 OF O-1 KM SRH ACROSS
   THE SOUTHEAST PENINSULA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 600 J/KG
   MLCAPE. THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
   SUSTAINED BOWS AND EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO AS STORMS SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL PENINSULA
   THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

   LAT...LON   25598137 26228086 27908080 27557998 25398019 25158102
               25598137 

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Page last modified: January 27, 2016
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