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Mesoscale Discussion 63
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 041207Z - 041700Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM ERN
   KS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER
   HOUR WILL BE COMMON AS BANDS INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST MOVING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY
   SLOT MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX. AHEAD OF THIS DRY
   SLOT...A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
   EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS WHERE WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. AS A JET MAX NEAR 700 MB MOVES NEWD INTO
   THE OZARKS THIS MORNING...MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY INCREASE
   ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET ACROSS ERN KS AND
   WCNTRL MO. THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR LIKELY IN THE MORE
   INTENSE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST WRF-HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
   THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL INITIALLY OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR
   FROM JOPLIN NWD TO JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
   HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD LATER
   THIS MORNING.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39609426 39879295 39819209 39219158 37619135 37099149
               36559218 36359376 36809493 37539572 38869575 39299509
               39609426 

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Page last modified: February 04, 2014
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