MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL WI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 290449Z - 290845Z
   
   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVE NWD/NEWD INTO THE AREA. FREEZING
   RAIN RATES OVER 0.05 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD/NWD TOWARDS
   E-CNTRL MN AND CNTRL WI. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS STILL
   ACROSS CNTRL IA AND NRN IL. AT ITS CURRENT MOTION...ESTIMATED NEWD
   AT 40-45 KTS...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH SRN WI BY 06Z.
   ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN MN AND IS EXPECTED
   TO REACH E-CNTRL MN AND W-CNTRL WI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EACH
   OF THESE AREAS WILL POSE SOME FREEZING RAIN RISK AS THEY CROSS THE
   WET-BULB ZERO LINE WHICH...PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS...EXTENDS
   FROM 40 MI SW OF STC /CNTRL MN/ SEWD TO 40 MI ENE OF MSN /SERN WI/.
   
   INCREASING WAA INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE FREEZING RAIN
   WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. THE WET-BULB ZERO LINE HAS BEEN TRENDING NWD
   AND MUCH OF THE IA/IL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN WHEN IT
   REACHES SRN WI. FARTHER N ACROSS CNTRL WI...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING
   RAIN.
   
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY...EVIDENCED BY LIGHTNING WITHIN BOTH OF THESE
   PRECIPITATION AREAS AND SHOWN BY RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NWD/NEWD. AS A RESULT...FREEZING
   RAIN RATES GREATER THAN 0.05 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR HIGHER RATES.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   44198810 44198861 44438974 45149145 45449182 45989213
               46199179 45739003 45078845 44448795 44198810