MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 290651Z - 290815Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM JUST N OF TOP SWD TO NEAR
   CNU WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST /S OF IRK/.
   THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR...PERHAPS ALONG A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A 50-60 KT SWLY
   LLJ.  MODIFICATION OF 00Z TOP/LMN SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE
   CONDITIONS INDICATES ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES OF AROUND 700 J/KG.
   
   IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BECOME 
   FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL A
   HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
   UNFOLD...CURRENT VAD DATA FROM TULSA OK NWD THROUGH SPRINGFIELD AND
   KANSAS CITY MO INDICATE LARGE...CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS WHICH
   WOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT.
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE CLOSELY BEING MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER
   INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY WHICH WOULD PROMPT THE NECESSITY OF A
   WATCH.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   37859518 38919526 39689514 40079377 39569239 38389228
               37439327 37209385 37339500 37859518