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Mesoscale Discussion 65
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281353Z - 281600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
   MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AND POTENTIALLY
   PARTS OF THE FL KEYS THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
   A STEADY GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS FAR SOUTH FL
   AND MAINLY THE LOWER KEYS THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH
   PART OF THIS CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH A WEAK/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS A FEW DEGREES
   COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY HAS NOT BEEN
   PARTICULARLY ROBUST AS EVIDENCED BY A RELATIVE LACK OF LIGHTNING.
   NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY IN THE PRESENCE
   OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH AS PER THE 12Z MIAMI OBSERVED
   SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINE-EMBEDDED
   BOWS/MESOVORTICES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
   COULD OCCUR AS STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD/ACROSS THE FAR
   SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24898222 25218143 25678104 26378051 26338003 25218022
               24668087 24528204 24898222 

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Page last modified: January 28, 2016
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