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Mesoscale Discussion 66
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SERN KANSAS
   INTO SWRN MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 160346Z - 160815Z

   SUMMARY...WITHIN A BAND ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
   BETWEEN TULSA OK AND SPRINGFIELD MO...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
   TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND BECOME HEAVY...AT RATES OF 1 TO
   OCCASIONALLY 2+ INCHES PER HOUR...BY THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.

   DISCUSSION...MOISTENING ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...ABOVE A DEEPENING
   SURFACE-BASED COLD INTRUSION NOW SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN THE
   PRESENCE OF BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
   THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT...AND INITIALLY HAMPERED
   BY EVAPORATION ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
   SPREADS IN THE COLD NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS.  

   HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WILL STEADILY CONTINUE TO SATURATE.  AT THE SAME TIME... AS
   THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT THROUGH
   THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG AN INTENSIFYING
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE...ROUGHLY NORTH OF TULSA OK
   THROUGH AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MO.  THIS IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED
   BY MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW
   TURNING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AND FURTHER COOLING
   OF A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM SLEET ...OR A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...TO
   ALL SNOW AFTER 06Z.  

   GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE CONTENT /AROUND .6 TO .7
   INCHES/ AND THE POTENTIALLY COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES...IT DOES
   APPEAR THAT THE BAND OF STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
   SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.  OCCASIONAL RATES AT OR
   ABOVE 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BECOME POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
   BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   ..KERR.. 02/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36459680 37199462 37759212 37209174 36869244 36479412
               36329486 36049632 36459680 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2015
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