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Mesoscale Discussion 67
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MD 67 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0067
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

   Areas affected...southeast Illinois through central and southern
   Indiana into southwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152351Z - 160215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least a marginal risk for a few strong to damaging wind
   gusts and a brief tornado will persist through early evening,
   initially from southeast IL through central and southern IN and
   eventually southwest OH.

   DISCUSSION...As of early this evening, a band of convection
   including a few thunderstorms, continues to increase from southeast
   IL through central IN within zone of low-level warm advection and
   isentropic ascent just north of a warm front. A very strong west
   southwesterly low-level jet (55-65 kt) coupled with a progressive
   mid-upper jet interacting with the warm front and a
   southeast-advancing cold front should continue to support convective
   development next few hours. Primary limiting factor is weak buoyancy
   (MLCAPE around 300 J/kg) with modest low to mid-level lapse rates
   relative to the very strong (70+ kt) effective bulk shear. This
   suggests updrafts may struggle to remain upright. Nevertheless,
   storms may eventually consolidate into line segments, especially as
   this activity is intercepted by the southeast-advancing cold front.
   Despite limited instability, some storm organization might still
   occur within this environment including a few embedded bowing
   segments, meso-vortices and some updraft rotation next few hours.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 02/15/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39578771 39958681 40368559 40488432 40038368 39498392
               39268479 38968650 38808819 39578771 

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