MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 291546Z - 291745Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN
   TX...SERN OK...AND WRN AR...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
   DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL REMAIN
   LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
   DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OKC TO
   SPS...CONFLUENCE FLOW WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS AND BENEATH A 65 KT LOW
   LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR.
   
   WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATING
   0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. FURTHER....THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING
   SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WHILE INITIAL ATTEMPTS
   AT NEW STORMS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO MARGINAL CAPPING...SUPERCELLS ARE
   EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION IS REALIZED AND
   TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWS ARE LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35439671 35749581 35909504 35919444 35809351 35539323
               35219324 34329331 33569361 33069405 32869529 33159721
               33719771 34279775 34679745 35019723 35439671