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Mesoscale Discussion 68
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...SW NEB

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 020137Z - 020630Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KS
   AND SW NEB THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
   WITHIN A FEW LOCATIONS INSIDE THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW JUST TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF RATON PASS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC
   LOW OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS
   DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY
   COOL THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS NW KS AND SW NEB SUGGESTING THE
   PREFERRED PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
   IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 600 MB WITH AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR
   AGGREGATION IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
   HEAVY SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS COULD REACH 1
   INCH PER HOUR ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38380038 38150155 38580195 40340173 40439946 39509919
               38380038 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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