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Mesoscale Discussion 68
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0068
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

   Areas affected...Texas Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180749Z - 180915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible early this morning
   along portions of the Texas Gulf Coast.  While a brief tornado or
   damaging gust cannot be ruled out, a watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong thunderstorms is currently
   affecting portions of Wharton, Fort Bend, and Harris counties TX. 
   These storms appear to be along a well-defined quasi-stationary
   surface boundary.  South of the boundary, moist and marginally
   unstable surface conditions are present with dewpoints near 70F. 
   Modifying forecast soundings for these parameters would indicate an
   environment minimally favorable for rotating storms capable of gusty
   winds or a brief tornado.  Recent trends in surface observations
   suggest there may be a weak mesolow to the southwest of these
   storms, which would potentially enhance the low level shear and lift
   for the next few hours.  While severe weather is possible, the risk
   appears rather low and a watch is not currently anticipated.

   ..Hart/Peters.. 01/18/2017


   LAT...LON   29819663 30699579 30799531 30569481 30099471 29259592
               29029643 29369676 29819663 

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