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Mesoscale Discussion 70
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 161543Z - 162045Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.04-0.07 INCH PER
   HOUR ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN AR INTO NRN MS AND
   NWRN AL.

   DISCUSSION...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
   EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLOPED ASCENT ATOP
   A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED WSW/ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
   TN VALLEY. 1009-MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RELATED SFC FRONT IS
   ANALYZED S OF MONROE LA...AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING IN THE GENERAL
   DIRECTION OF ONGOING 1.5-2-MB-PER-2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS DRIVEN BY
   LLJ-ENHANCED WAA TO THE ENE. A MORE SOLID SHIELD OF RELATIVELY
   HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS APPROACHING/CROSSING THE MS RIVER AT
   PRESENT...AND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE TO FOSTER THIS EWD/ENEWD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION...AND AN
   EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ENHANCING PRECIP
   RATES. GIVEN THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYER UNDERCUTTING
   WELL-ABOVE-0C TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR.

   SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NOTABLE COLD WEDGE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NW PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
   REGION...WITH GLH SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FROZEN PRECIPITATION
   ONGOING. RELATED COLD-AIR DAMMING AND SWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-THETA-E
   AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- ENHANCED IN THE NW DELTA -- WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE ARCING NATURE OF THE FREEZING-RAIN POTENTIAL AREA
   INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
   E DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

   ..COHEN.. 02/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33179216 34289109 34869003 35008760 34938677 34638697
               34448869 34009020 33209102 33029175 33179216 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2015
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