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Mesoscale Discussion 70
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0070
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

   Areas affected...Northeastern Minnesota

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 181551Z - 181945Z

   SUMMARY...Sustained heavy snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
   appear to be in the process of developing across northeastern
   Minnesota, near Hibbing.  This is expected to continue and spread
   east northeastward across the Minnesota Arrowhead region through 3-5
   PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow is already underway within an
   area of northeastern Minnesota centered around Hibbing.  This is
   occurring in response to lift associated with low-level warm
   advection and lower/mid tropospheric frontogenesis, within a band to
   the northeast of a relatively deep surface cyclone over eastern
   South Dakota.  Models generally indicate that this forcing will
   increase into the afternoon hours, and gradually pivot across the
   Minnesota Arrowhead region as the upstream pattern continues to
   gradually amplify.

   Forecast soundings suggest that lift may become maximized within a
   deepening mixed phase layer favorable for dendritic ice crystal
   growth for a 4-6 hour period through 21-23Z this afternoon. 
   Although available moisture appears somewhat modest, guidance
   indicates that cold soundings with high snow to liquid water
   equivalent values will probably support 1-2 inch per snow rates.

   ..Kerr.. 02/18/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

   LAT...LON   47589325 48229285 48759085 48298889 47398956 46929175
               46909277 47589325 

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Page last modified: February 18, 2018
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