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Mesoscale Discussion 70
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0070
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Texas ans southwestern
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182041Z - 182315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to strengthen across upper
   Texas coastal areas, into adjacent southwestern Louisiana, through
   22-23Z.  Severe weather potential does not appear enough to require
   a watch, but eventually activity could become capable of producing
   occasional strong surface gusts approaching or briefly exceeding
   severe limits.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence appears enhanced, within a zone
   along a 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb jet extending inland across upper
   Texas coastal areas near/east of the Greater Houston Metropolitan
   area, providing support for a sustained band of convection.  This
   band is most vigorous inland of coastal areas, where surface heating
   has contributed to weak boundary layer destabilization (CAPE up to
   around 500 J/kg), with some recent intensification underway as this
   instability begins to peak.

   Relatively warm mid/upper level temperatures, in the presence of
   weak to negligible mid/upper forcing for ascent, may still be
   suppressing activity somewhat.  However, at least some further
   intensification of thunderstorm activity appears probable through
   22-23Z.  

   Veering of winds with height in lower-levels has already supported
   occasional weak rotation in some cells.   And the latest Rapid
   Refresh suggests some further strengthening in 850 mb flow (to 30-35
   kt) is possible near upper Texas coastal areas by early evening. 
   Beneath 30-40+ kt southwesterly 700-500 mb flow, the environment may
   become marginally conducive to an organizing line of storms with
   some risk for potentially damaging surface gusts.  This may be aided
   by heavy precipitation loading in the presence of seasonably high
   precipitable water content.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 01/18/2017


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30399426 31049387 31029320 30599278 29759337 29389411
               29299471 29839443 30399426 

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Page last modified: January 18, 2017
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