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Mesoscale Discussion 73
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

   Areas affected...southwest through central Louisiana into southwest
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190556Z - 190800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a couple instances of damaging wind and a brief
   tornado will exist into the early morning from southwest through
   central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Threat does not appear
   sufficient for a WW, but area will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Some increase in thunderstorm organization and coverage
   has been recently observed over southern LA into the northwest Gulf.
   Uptick in convection appears to be in association to a modest
   increase in the southwesterly low-level jet which will persist into
   the morning hours in response to an upstream impulse. The marginal
   thermodynamic environment with weak lapse rates and MLCAPE below 500
   J/kg will remain the primary limiting factor. Moreover, while some
   increase in vertical shear will occur, low-level hodograph size is
   not expected to become exceptionally large. Nevertheless, the
   kinematic environment will be sufficient for storms to develop at
   least marginal supercell structures, especially as they move
   northeast and interact with the stationary boundary across
   south-central LA into southwest MS.

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 01/19/2017


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30429318 31799182 32469055 31839014 31189065 30629162
               29719304 30429318 

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Page last modified: January 19, 2017
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