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Mesoscale Discussion 74
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IA...SRN MN...AND MUCH OF WI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 021735Z - 022230Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...WILL CONTINUE
   TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED NEAR-BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IA INTO SRN
   MN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB AS OF
   1730Z MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A RELATED BAND OF STRONG
   LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD WITH
   TIME. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN THE W-E ORIENTED DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
   DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE FROM SW-NE WITH TIME AS
   THE NOSE OF A MID/UPPER JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD BY
   23Z. MID-LEVEL COOLING AND RELATED STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL ENCOURAGE SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
   SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN HEAVY SNOW BANDS...AND RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR
   MAY BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE. 17Z SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
   IA/SRN MN WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING INDICATE ELY/NELY WINDS OF
   15-25 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT AS AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL KS MOVES NEWD WITH THE UPPER LOW. A CONTINUED
   ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON SUGGESTS NEAR-BLIZZARD TO OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   SHOULD CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NRN IA AND SRN MN FOR AT LEAST THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

   ..GLEASON.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42989377 42259632 43419642 44169576 45289371 46019008
               45768845 44958785 43558949 42649189 42989377 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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