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Mesoscale Discussion 75
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF NC AND PORTIONS OF NRN SC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 162150Z - 170345Z

   SUMMARY...THE INITIATION OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER MIXED
   PRECIPITATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. THE
   PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS AND LOCATIONS
   FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUE
   INTO TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL ICING IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING
   THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE...WSW/ENE-ORIENTED SHIELD
   OF PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY REACHING WRN PORTIONS OF THE NC/SC
   PIEDMONT. STRENGTHENING POLEWARD MASS FLUXES ABOVE A NWD-SLOPING
   WEDGE FRONT E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- ENCOURAGED BY AN APPROACHING
   LLJ -- WILL ALLOW THE UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS
   THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC
   LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
   PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. DESPITE SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS AT THE SFC FAVORING ENHANCED SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...THE
   ESTABLISHED PRECIPITATION ZONE IS ALREADY RESULTING IN SLEET AND
   EVEN SNOW REPORTS PER THE NSSL PRECIPITATION IDENTIFICATION NEAR THE
   GROUND /PING/ PROJECT OUTPUT ACROSS THE SRN-NC PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT
   SC.

   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTENING/SATURATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
   WET-BULBING EFFECTS INTO THE DRY/SUB-FREEZING SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
   MAINTAIN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR INITIALLY SLEET AND
   PERHAPS SNOW INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z...FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME OF
   PARTICULAR CONCERN AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD
   THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH RELATED WAA/WARMING ALOFT HAVING AN
   INCREASED PROPENSITY FOR MELTING DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. FREEZING
   RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
   INTO TONIGHT.

   GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WITH 2-HOUR PRESSURE
   FALLS ALREADY OF 2.0-3.5 MB AND FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE IN
   MAGNITUDE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
   SUBSTANTIAL ICING INTO TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY
   REACH 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR...WITH SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES
   REACHING 0.10-0.25 INCH PER HOUR. FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS
   DISCUSSION HAVE BEEN COLLABORATED WITH THE RALEIGH WEATHER FORECAST
   OFFICE.

   ..COHEN.. 02/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36378065 36537880 36377588 35497714 34967859 34738068
               34768167 35438145 36378065 

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Page last modified: February 17, 2015
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