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Mesoscale Discussion 75
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SERN MS...SRN AL...AND THE
   FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021850Z - 021945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
   MAIN THREATS. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX SHOWS A NEARLY UNCAPPED
   SURFACE-BASED PARCEL...AND CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
   COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA INTO SRN AL...MOST LIKELY ALONG
   MULTIPLE CONFLUENCE LINES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING
   THE MS RIVER. SIMILAR TO THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING PROVIDED IN
   MCD 73 FOR MUCH OF MS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLY/SELY WINDS...INSTABILITY SHOULD
   LIKEWISE INCREASE...WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BECOMING COMMON
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA. BOTH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.
   TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA AS WELL AS
   LOCATIONS FURTHER W IN CNTRL/SRN MS AND PARTS OF ERN LA IS LIKELY
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30298822 29718916 29288975 28969074 29279121 29949096
               31399003 31868874 31948790 31928692 31828634 30478653
               30298822 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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