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Mesoscale Discussion 76
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0933 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN VIRGINIA...CNTRL MARYLAND...DELAWARE
   AND SRN NEW JERSEY

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 170333Z - 170800Z

   SUMMARY...INCREASING SNOW RATES...UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...STILL
   APPEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
   GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
   JERSEY.

   DISCUSSION...COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
   COAST...MODELS INDICATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
   WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN A PIVOTING BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
   INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS
   LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION...AND AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SNOW RATES...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF SATURATED...SUB-FREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  

   OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST NCEP-SREF AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OR BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2
   INCHES PER HOUR...IS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER
   ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES...AND THE COLD NATURE OF THE NEAR
   SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTIVE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER
   RATIOS...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
   IMPACT AREAS AS FAR WEST AND NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 95
   CORRIDOR...BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEAR TO EXIST
   ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
   METROPOLITAN AREA...PERHAPS DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY 09Z.

   ..KERR.. 02/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39367631 39817499 39057434 38127512 37767735 38477733
               38897704 39367631 

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Page last modified: February 17, 2015
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