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Mesoscale Discussion 77
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Areas affected...eastern Alabama through west central GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200011Z - 200215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a marginal risk for
   isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado through 02Z as they move
   through the remainder of eastern Alabama into far western Georgia.
   Overall threat does not appear sufficient for a WW.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with embedded bowing segments
   and meso-vortices extends from northeast through south-central GA.
   The line is moving east at 15-20 kt, while individual elements
   within the line move more rapidly northeast. Objective analysis
   indicates a marginally unstable warm sector with MLCAPE below 500
   J/kg. The weak thermodynamic environment should remain the primary
   limiting factor for a more robust severe threat especially as storms
   continue east into GA as evidenced by the 00Z Atlanta raob. Based on
   the VWP from Montgomery AL, low-level hodographs are not
   particularly large with unidirectional deep-layer wind profiles.
   However, effective bulk shear up to 40 kt is sufficient for storms
   to organize with embedded bowing segments and weak supercell
   structures. Some increase in the low-level jet is expected this
   evening in response to the ejecting upper trough. However, storms
   will begin to move east of the more unstable portion of warm sector
   beyond 02Z, suggesting an overall diminishing trend by that time.

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 01/20/2017


   LAT...LON   32008649 32748614 33288591 33698578 34038556 33748505
               33268476 32478474 31878549 32008649 

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