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Mesoscale Discussion 78
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN AND ERN LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

   VALID 022318Z - 030115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN LA...SRN AND
   CNTRL MS AND SW AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE
   NERN PART OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN WRN MS WITH
   SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SE LA ACROSS MOST OF MS. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
   70S F WITH MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THE CNTRL PART OF THE WATCH. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER MORE INTENSE LINE LOCATED
   ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
   JACKSON NNEWD TO NEAR COLUMBUS MS. THE WSR-88D VWP AT JACKSON MS
   SHOWS STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   NEAR 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELCITIES IN
   THE 350 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
   WILL BE IN THE NERN PART OF THE WATCH NEAR THE AL STATE LINE WHERE
   THE CORE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED. ALTHOUGH SFC
   WINDS ARE MORE VEERED IN THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH...ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO THE
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29529131 29609146 29699148 29779169 29639193 29549233
               29609262 30019264 30039271 30119260 30449262 30569240
               30529223 30739215 30989227 30979223 31299222 31349200
               31859204 31939192 32089186 32179195 32279203 32409199
               32659167 32899154 33029146 33019086 33109088 33089061
               32919061 32899039 33029041 32969021 32848985 32878972
               32948973 32898837 32298842 32308807 32018812 31968768
               32118758 32118752 32258749 32248739 32038710 32028688
               31798693 31588715 31358736 31278749 31248764 30848763
               30718744 30518742 30398743 30268760 30238861 30198904
               30098930 30038945 30158954 30188973 30188983 30048993
               30029020 30119041 30019059 29899052 29909074 29929088
               29719097 29559112 29529131 

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