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Mesoscale Discussion 78
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CST THU FEB 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA...SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 061809Z - 062215Z

   SUMMARY...A SHIELD OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE
   EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS APPROACHING
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS. PRECEDING DCVA IS
   MODESTLY ENHANCING MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ABOVE A SFC-BASED COLD
   DOME. IR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY IMPLY A RECENT UPTICK IN SHALLOW
   CONVECTION OVER SRN LA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ATTENDANT
   TO THE IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER SERN
   LA...FAR SERN MS...AND SWRN AL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   WITH THE 12Z LIX RAOB WET-BULB PROFILE INDICATING DEEP SUB-FREEZING
   AIR BENEATH A SHALLOW WARM LAYER BETWEEN H85 AND H7...SLEET AND
   PERHAPS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
   PRECIPITATION...AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR PATTERSON TOWARD BATON
   ROUGE AND THEN EWD TOWARD NEW ORLEANS AND PERHAPS GULFPORT DURING
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION AND SUB-CLOUD
   EVAPORATION WILL REINFORCE THE COLD DOME...WITH ICE PRECIP PHASES
   BEING MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES
   OF 0.03-0.05 INCH/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY --
   SNOWFALL RATES AOB 0.4 INCH/HOUR -- THOUGH SUCH RATES WILL BE BRIEF
   OWING TO THE FAST MOTION OF THE IMPULSE.

   FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH OF
   JACKSON TOWARD MCCOMB EWD TO THE PINE BELT REGION...HINTS OF
   CYCLONIC ARCHING OF THE BROADER PRECIP SHIELD INTO THIS REGION
   SUGGEST DEFORMATION-ZONE-RELATED ENHANCED ASCENT. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
   DEEPER COLD AIR EXISTS PER THE 12Z JAN RAOB. SNOW WILL BE MORE
   LIKELY IN THESE AREAS...AND HEAVY SNOW HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED
   UPSTREAM IN ALEXANDRIA LA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE IMPULSE QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.3-0.6 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVER
   AN HOUR OR TWO OF DURATION.

   THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EWD INTO SWRN AL
   IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE AFTER 1930-2000Z.

   ..COHEN.. 02/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30509122 31529103 32009049 32218891 31948770 30908768
               30678810 30418917 29789041 29689118 30509122 

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Page last modified: February 06, 2014
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