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Mesoscale Discussion 78
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MAINE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 190359Z - 190900Z

   SUMMARY...BAND OF SNOW CENTERED OVER YORK COUNTY SHOULD INTENSIFY
   OVERNIGHT WITH RATES POSSIBLY REACHING 2-3 IN/HR AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY
   EAST.

   DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB MESOLOW NEAR THE
   JUXTAPOSITION OF THE NY/VT/MA BORDER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING E TO
   NEAR THE ME/NH COASTAL BORDER. A NNW/SSE-ORIENTED BAND OF PROBABLE
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF THIS TROUGH CENTERED
   ACROSS YORK COUNTY. THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS HAS
   BECOME COINCIDENT WITH THIS BAND IN THE 0330-0345Z IR IMAGES. THIS
   LOBE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON
   VALLEY WILL YIELD CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE NEW
   ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AMIDST A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM SAMPLED FROM 700-500 MB IN 00Z GYX/ALB/OKX/BUF
   RAOBS SHOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE NARROW
   NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOW AND GRADUAL EWD EVOLUTION...THIS BAND WILL
   PROBABLY ONLY REACH THE MID COAST BY 12Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   44067084 44167063 44436993 44546916 44506883 44366856
               44216855 44106864 43916935 43547013 43337061 43597079
               43907091 44067084 

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Page last modified: February 19, 2015
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