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Mesoscale Discussion 79
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NERN AR...SERN MO...SWRN KY...FAR
   NRN MS AND AL

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 202100Z - 210200Z

   SUMMARY...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR
   THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   MID-SOUTH. RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER THREE HRS ARE ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO
   LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM SRN AR NEWD ACROSS
   WRN/MIDDLE TN...AND ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN KY. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
   SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE POSITIONED FROM CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS
   N-CNTRL MS...AND SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD IN RESPONSE TO SFC
   MOIST/WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERED EFFECTS FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
   REPORTS OF INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN THE
   PAST 1-3 HRS ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS AREA. 

   STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ /ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE ARKLATEX PER
   SHV VWP DATA/ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN
   A WARM NOSE AT 1.5-2 KM AGL BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED WITH TIME.
   FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OR TRANSITION TO THE DOMINANT P-TYPE
   OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WHERE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
   RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT /0.05-0.10 INCH PER
   THREE HRS/...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 00Z/ AHEAD OF A
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMANATING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE THE
   FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE MCD AREA. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES MAY ALSO
   OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

   ..ROGERS.. 02/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36518609 36138561 35398552 35008592 34588719 34518883
               34959024 35069212 35419259 36759194 37039062 36888745
               36518609 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2015
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