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Mesoscale Discussion 81
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0081
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1004 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

   Areas affected...extreme southeast Texas through southwest and south
   central Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

   Valid 210404Z - 210600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will remain capable of producing large to
   very large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes into the early
   morning. Greatest threat next few hours will exist across southwest
   through south-central LA, but threat will eventually expand into
   southeast LA and southern MS later tonight into early Saturday.

   DISCUSSION...Late this evening a warm front extends along the Gulf
   Coast through southern LA. As this boundary continues moving slowly
   north and steeper mid-level lapse rates advect east, the atmosphere
   will destabilize farther inland with MLCAPE generally from 500 to
   1000 J/kg over southern LA. Cluster of storms continues developing
   through southwest and south-central LA generally along and north of
   the warm front. However, additional discrete cells have developed in
   warm sector. The strengthening low-level jet and forcing for ascent
   in response to the ejecting shortwave trough will continue to
   promote thunderstorm development next several hours. Moreover, a
   gradual increase in hodograph size has been observed on the Lake
   Charles VWP with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity exceeding 200 m2/s2
   and effective bulk shear near 65 kt.

   ..Dial.. 01/21/2017


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30519352 30939276 31259225 31069176 30199158 29659117
               29579215 29749300 29859367 30519352 

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Page last modified: January 21, 2017
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