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Mesoscale Discussion 81
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030019Z - 030215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE A VERY ISOLATED
   WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD
   BE BRIEF.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN A NNE/SSW ORIENTED
   BAND FROM NEAR COOK COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR BOND/MADISON COUNTIES
   IN ILLINOIS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY /ON THE ORDER OF 250-600 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND LIFT FROM A
   VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER IOWA.  NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING AND LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND RESULT IN GRADUALLY MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
   WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-SHEAR PROFILES IN THE
   REGION SUGGEST THAT A VERY ISOLATED WIND GUST OR TORNADO THREAT MAY
   OCCUR.  GIVEN THE LOW OVERALL THREAT...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   ..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38488997 39048982 39898918 40598835 40898759 40928691
               40688656 39908652 38848720 38318773 38188830 38128880
               38098943 38258988 38488997 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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