|Mesoscale Discussion 81|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017
Areas affected...extreme southeast Texas through southwest and south
Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...
Valid 210404Z - 210600Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will remain capable of producing large to
very large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes into the early
morning. Greatest threat next few hours will exist across southwest
through south-central LA, but threat will eventually expand into
southeast LA and southern MS later tonight into early Saturday.
DISCUSSION...Late this evening a warm front extends along the Gulf
Coast through southern LA. As this boundary continues moving slowly
north and steeper mid-level lapse rates advect east, the atmosphere
will destabilize farther inland with MLCAPE generally from 500 to
1000 J/kg over southern LA. Cluster of storms continues developing
through southwest and south-central LA generally along and north of
the warm front. However, additional discrete cells have developed in
warm sector. The strengthening low-level jet and forcing for ascent
in response to the ejecting shortwave trough will continue to
promote thunderstorm development next several hours. Moreover, a
gradual increase in hodograph size has been observed on the Lake
Charles VWP with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity exceeding 200 m2/s2
and effective bulk shear near 65 kt.
LAT...LON 30519352 30939276 31259225 31069176 30199158 29659117
29579215 29749300 29859367 30519352
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