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Mesoscale Discussion 82
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...LAKE HURON

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 030048Z - 030445Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
   EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
   WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
   THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
   ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ALPENA
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOW A PROFILE MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH A
   WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST
   OF NE LOWER MI FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WHERE AREAS HEAVY SNOW WILL
   BE LIKELY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
   THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
   EVENING...THE WARM LAYER NEAR 700 MB SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE
   2 TO 3 CELSIUS RANGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET
   FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS THE WARMING OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
   SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...APX...

   LAT...LON   44478280 44368306 44348342 44408385 44528429 44628446
               44828459 45338441 45658349 45428275 44898249 44618260
               44478280 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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