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Mesoscale Discussion 82
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1007 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 210407Z - 210600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will move east across the
   discussion area this evening into the overnight hours. A couple of
   these storms may reach severe limits, with the potential for large
   hail. However, any instances of large hail should remain sparse
   enough to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have re-developed across southeast Texas
   late this evening, in response to increasing large-scale ascent (and
   related mid-level cooling) along the leading edge of an impulse
   transiting east towards the Gulf Coast. While drying aloft will
   eventually shift the thunderstorm threat eastward into Louisiana,
   these cells are developing along the leading edge of a plume of
   steeper lapse rates aloft. With strong southwesterly mid/upper flow
   positioned over the region, effective shear on the order of 40-45
   kts is sufficient for organization of more robust updrafts rooted
   above the cool/stable surface layer. As such, the strongest cells
   may be capable of a few large hail reports over the next several
   hours, before the activity moves east into Tornado Watch 9. Despite
   this potential, however, increasing MUCIN (with the aforementioned
   drying aloft) should keep the severe threat localized enough to
   preclude watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Edwards.. 01/21/2017


   LAT...LON   29869619 30679580 30899519 31049404 31009375 30749362
               29879431 29349477 28649587 28569630 29209634 29869619 

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