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Mesoscale Discussion 83
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0083
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

   Areas affected...Southern/Central/Northeast LA...Far Southwest MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

   Valid 212115Z - 212300Z


   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat remains but the overall severe
   threat continues to diminish.

   DISCUSSION...Steady southeastward progression of the cold front
   appears to have undercut much of the ongoing storms from southeast
   TX into southeast MS. The only exception is across northeast LA and
   adjacent southwest MS where storms are still ongoing ahead of the
   boundary. However, even in this area, storms do not appear to be
   rooted within the boundary layer. Long-lived storm cluster with
   embedded supercells has devolved into more of MCS with somewhat
   well-developed meso-low. Occasional wind damaging and maybe even a
   brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out with the MCS,
   particularly as it interacts with the southeastward-progressing
   frontal zone, but the overall weakening trend is expected to
   continue. Some additional threat is possible with any warm-sector
   development but instances of warm-sector storms will become
   increasingly unlikely overtime as low-level flow weakens and the
   front continues to slow down.

   ..Mosier.. 02/21/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31849326 32259299 32559222 32559078 31379077 30049220
               29989428 31849326 

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