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Mesoscale Discussion 83
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0083
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

   Areas affected...southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 210444Z - 210545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a few tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail
   will gradually expand east into southeast LA and southern MS through
   the early morning hours. A tornado watch will be issued by around
   05Z.

   DISCUSSION...Late this evening a warm front extends from near the
   Gulf Coast through southern LA. This boundary will move slowly north
   through the early morning as the low-level jet strengthens in
   response to a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Northward
   advection of richer low-level moisture and eastward expansion of
   elevated mixed layer plume will destabilize the atmosphere
   downstream from storms currently developing from southwest through
   south-central LA. The destabilization process, increasing low-level
   hodograph size and strong effective bulk shear will promote
   supercells and bowing segments as storms continue east. Greatest
   tornado threat may be as storms interact with warm front. Otherwise,
   large hail and damaging wind will also be likely.

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 01/21/2017


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31798874 30848847 29678915 29258993 29359078 30159122
               30569154 31439162 32019022 31798874 

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Page last modified: January 21, 2017
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