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Mesoscale Discussion 84
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MO-AR OZARK PLATEAU

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 210859Z - 211100Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVES EWD
   ALONG THE MO-AR BORDER REGION.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A CLUSTER OF
   SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN AR INTO SRN MO AS OF 0855Z.  AS A
   MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER KS CONTINUES EWD INTO WRN MO LATE
   TONIGHT...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM INTO
   PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND PARTS OF NERN AR.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
   SERN MO AND NERN AR SHOW UPWARDS OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE AND
   WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH 11Z.  SURFACE
   ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEDGE OF NEAR-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS NRN
   AR AND SRN MO WITH A NLY-COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS LIKELY AS
   SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS FAVOR THE INVERTED TROUGH BECOMING
   ESTABLISHED OVER ERN AR/WRN TN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AS
   A RESULT...THE ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   A FEW HOUR BURST OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN RATES /0.05-0.15 INCH PER
   HOUR/ BEFORE ABATING FROM WEST TO EAST.

   ..SMITH.. 02/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36449388 37099345 37219028 36988996 36499010 35989126
               35719234 35869362 36449388 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2015
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