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Mesoscale Discussion 84
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0084
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...southwest...south-central and central Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

   Valid 210741Z - 210845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest threat for additional severe storms across WW
   9 is expected across eastern portions of this watch in south-central
   and east-central Louisiana.  The portion of WW 9 in south-central
   Louisiana may need to be extended temporally beyond the expiration
   of 08Z as discrete storms continue to develop over that region and
   also move inland from the Gulf of Mexico.

   Meanwhile, storms tracking to the east-northeast from southeast
   Texas into Louisiana should continue to diminish in intensity
   allowing the rest of WW 9 to expire at 08Z.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in early overnight water-vapor imagery indicated
   two midlevel shortwave troughs aiding in focused thunderstorm
   coverage across the northwest Gulf Coast region from southeast TX
   through LA to southwest MS.

   The lead impulse and associated thunderstorms from south-central LA
   to southwest MS are expected to remain the primary severe-weather
   threat, as this activity advances to the east-northeast into a
   strongly sheared and moistening environment.  Backed (southerly)
   low-level winds beneath southwesterly midlevel winds will sustain
   bulk shear for organized storms.  LIX holograph also indicated 0-1
   km SRH values around 200 m2/s2 favorable for low-level storm
   rotation and a continued tornado threat for storms across
   south-central LA.

   ..Peters.. 01/21/2017


   LAT...LON   29769362 30869254 31119226 31219175 30529168 29709114
               29429131 28989133 29099194 29419362 29769362 

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