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Mesoscale Discussion 86
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 030908Z - 031115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BROKEN SQLN IN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG LOW-LVL SHEAR
   OVER NE AL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NRN GA
   THROUGH LATER THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A WW IN THE NEXT
   HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED...SSW-NNE-ORIENTED SQLN IN NE AL SHOULD
   CONTINUE MOVING ENE AT ABUT 35 KTS...WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE NNE
   ALONG THE LINE AT A SOMEWHAT GREATER SPEED. DEEP WIND FIELD
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY AS
   PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SQLN ADVANCES FARTHER N
   ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF LOW
   TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD OVER GA...WITH 60+ KT 850-500 MB FLOW PER
   ATLANTA VWP...WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AMPLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
   OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED/ROTATING STORMS DESPITE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
   COUPLED WITH SIZABLE LOW-LVL VEERING COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /PERHAPS
   AUGMENTED ALONG REMNANT WEDGE-TYPE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SRN FOOTHILLS
   OF THE APPALACHIANS/...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
   F...SETUP COULD POSE A RISK FOR SPORADIC LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR A
   TORNADO. PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES IN ERN AL ATTM FURTHER
   SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION AND A RISK FOR
   OCCASIONAL SVR WX...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..CORFIDI/DIAL.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33858258 33188365 32818462 32898508 33498545 34218551
               34798503 34838349 33858258 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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