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Mesoscale Discussion 86
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...Central/southern Alabama and the western Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 210900Z - 211030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
   hail will spread east-northeastward into Alabama and the western
   Florida Panhandle through sunrise.  A tornado watch will likely be
   needed by 10z.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing convective cluster and an associated
   mesolow in southeast LA/southwest MS will continue to develop/move
   northeastward toward AL, in association with an ejecting midlevel
   trough (see MCD 0085 for additional information in MS/LA for tornado
   watch 10).  A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likewise
   develop toward AL and enhance the northward transport of low-level
   moisture.  With at least weak buoyancy rooted at or very near the
   surface, increasing low-level shear with the approach of the mesolow
   will support an expansion of the tornado risk from MS into AL
   through the morning.  Thus, a tornado watch will likely be needed by
   10z as the initial warm advection storms slowly increase over
   southwest AL, and the mesolow approaches the MS/AL state line by

   ..Thompson.. 01/21/2017


   LAT...LON   31618535 30928590 30538617 30418789 30618828 31738836
               32788831 33308761 33788621 33738557 33308532 32338511

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