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Mesoscale Discussion 87
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030958Z - 031130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST
   WILL PERSIST OVER NERN TN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED LOW-TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR
   KNOXVILLE AND SWD INTO SERN TN IS MOVING EAST AT NEAR 50 KT. STRONG
   CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE 60-70 KT SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
   THE LINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED AND SHALLOW...AND
   LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE/SPORADIC.
   NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME OF THE
   HIGH MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC WITHIN BANDS OF
   HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36028407 36498359 36588259 36058256 35708328 35178402
               35178455 36028407 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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