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Mesoscale Discussion 87
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MD 87 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0087
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0409 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Areas affected...central and north-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241009Z - 241215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe hail will
   remain possible for the next few hours. A watch is not anticipated
   in the near term; however, one may become needed across portions of
   the region later this morning as a more robust severe threat is

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing across portions
   of central Texas in response to continuing warm-air advection in the
   850-700 millibar layer atop a residual baroclinic zone. Midlevel
   lapse rates on the order of 7.5-8 C/km between 700-500 millibars,
   with peak lapse-rates approaching 8.5-9 C/km within that broader
   layer, have contributed to most-unstable CAPE values around 1000
   J/kg. This, coupled with deep-layer shear increasing to around 60
   knots, suggests isolated hail -- possibly approaching severe
   criteria -- may be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. The
   isolated nature of the threat for the next few hours suggests that a
   watch will likely not be needed.

   Later this morning, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
   across portions of this area as large-scale ascent associated with a
   strong midlevel trough approaches. These thunderstorms will
   initially be rooted around 700 millibars -- well above the boundary
   layer -- and will pose a threat for hail. With time, these
   thunderstorms should gradually become rooted more in the boundary
   layer, increasing the risk of additional severe hazards.

   ..Marsh/Goss.. 02/24/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30659938 31639914 32589822 32549725 32169648 31239638
               30469712 30229845 30659938 

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