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Mesoscale Discussion 87
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0087
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0635 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...Extreme southeast Mississippi and southeast
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

   Valid 211235Z - 211330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts should be the primary
   severe-weather threat within the remaining valid area of WW 10
   (across southeast Louisiana and extreme southeast Mississippi) until
   13Z.  However, given strong low-level shear, a tornado threat cannot
   be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...At 12Z, mosaic radar imagery and trends in surface
   mesoanalyses indicated a well-defined comma head/mesolow had moved
   into west-central Alabama and was located from Marengo to Sumter
   Counties.  This low is associated with a progressive shortwave
   trough expected to move into Alabama through this morning with the
   expected downstream northward transport of mid-upper 60s F dew
   points well underway across southern Alabama into west-central
   Georgia.  Meanwhile, mosaic radar imagery also indicated a trailing
   band of strong to occasionally severe storms extending from the
   mesolow through extreme southeast Mississippi to southeast
   Louisiana.  Low-level winds per LIX 12Z sounding and WSR-88D VWP
   data have begun to veer to southwesterly, becoming parallel to the
   trailing band of storms.  This will continue to limit low-level
   convergence into these east-southeastward-moving storms, with a
   gradual diminishing trend in a severe-weather threat through 13Z
   across the remaining portion of WW 10.

   ..Peters/Thompson.. 01/21/2017


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29699125 30328981 30808903 31388838 29898828 28898868
               28658936 28879010 28839089 28899124 29699125 

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Page last modified: January 21, 2017
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