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Mesoscale Discussion 89
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0089
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0919 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of GA...southeastern AL...the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 11...12...

   Valid 211519Z - 211645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 11, 12 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging
   winds and tornadoes continues across Tornado Watches 11 and 12.

   DISCUSSION...A squall line extending from west-central GA through
   the western FL Panhandle will continue progressing eastward during
   the next several hours. A moist boundary layer characterized by
   surface dewpoints in the middle 60s to around 70F continues to
   develop northward ahead of this activity, and south of a warm front
   analyzed from southeast AL to south-central GA. With pockets of
   modest diurnal heating, limited gains in buoyancy will occur, which
   should allow the squall line to be maintained eastward given ample
   low-level and deep shear. With deep shear vectors oriented obliquely
   to the line, rotating convective elements may continue to evolve
   within embedded LEWP structures and line breaks, where pockets of
   wind-damage and tornado potential will be enhanced. The severe risk
   will decrease behind the convective line until later this afternoon
   into tonight.

   Meanwhile, a warm-advection plume branches from the northern extent
   of the squall line through north-central GA and into east-central
   GA. Northward fluxes of low-level moisture and related
   destabilization along the southern fringes of the
   warm-advection-enhanced precipitation shield will maintain a risk
   for deeper convective elements/occasional supercell structures
   across parts of central GA and vicinity. While inflow parcels may be
   only very marginally buoyant, strong low-level shear may offer some
   tornado potential with this activity.

   ..Cohen.. 01/21/2017


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30438705 31768563 33368462 33538351 32728273 31368325
               30098489 30068601 30438705 

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Page last modified: January 21, 2017
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