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Mesoscale Discussion 89
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0089
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1026 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast TX to Eastern AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 241626Z - 241730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued soon to address an increasing
   severe threat from northeast TX into AR.

   DISCUSSION...Strong short-wave trough is ejecting into the central
   Plains today. In response to this feature LLJ is expected to
   markedly increase across the Arklatex over the next few hours.
   Surface pressure falls are focused across KS/eastern OK/extreme
   northeast TX, suggesting weak surface low will track into eastern OK
   over the next few hours. This evolution should encourage a
   well-defined surface warm front to gradually lift north...though the
   primary baroclinic zone should remain oriented southwest-northeast
   along a corridor from extreme southeast OK to near the MO Bootheel.
   Convection is beginning to strengthen along the front across the
   Metroplex and this activity should increase in areal
   coverage/intensity as it spreads downstream along the aforementioned
   boundary. Supercells are likely, given the observed shear, though an
   upward evolving squall line should ultimately form as convection
   matures across AR. While surface heating will be limited across the
   warm sector, ample buoyancy is in place for robust updrafts and a
   few strong tornadoes are possible. With time damaging winds should
   materialize as squall line becomes more established.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 02/24/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33709598 34579424 35599208 35179078 33429185 32439585

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