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Mesoscale Discussion 90
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 121613Z - 122215Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF ERN NC LATE THIS MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD INCREASE
   TO 0.10 TO 0.15 OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS AS PRECIPITATION
   SPREADS NWD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL AND WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY
   HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN
   MTNS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LIFT IS BEING
   ENHANCED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 55 KT LOW
   TO MID-LEVEL JET IN ERN GA AND SC. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   NWD INTO NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NWD
   EXPANSION OF MODERATE SNOW FROM THE WINSTON-SALEM EWD TO THE
   VICINITY OF RALEIGH/DURHAM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW IS
   EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

   FURTHER TO THE EAST...SFC TEMPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING FROM
   WILMINGTON NWD TO GREENVILLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
   SHOW A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
   FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.15
   OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...SFC TEMPS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
   FREEZING RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   35087873 34577800 34387755 34537704 34957650 35727603
               36247599 36417630 36507674 36557798 36627918 36658072
               36428175 36198239 35858261 35548256 35448233 35538146
               35548050 35087873 

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Page last modified: February 12, 2014
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